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. 2024 Apr 19;24:1088. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-18563-1

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Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 4 — Weekly model inputs for the study period (July to November 2021) for A estimated travel volumes into Canada for essential and non-essential travellers, B proportions of fully vaccinated travellers estimated for essential travellers given global vaccine coverage [5] and reported for non-essential travellers [23], and model output for C percent positivity and D number of imported COVID-19 cases into Canada as stratified into essential and non-essential travellers and combined (overall) for the baseline scenario (pre-departure testing of all non-essential travellers), counterfactual scenario 1 (no pre-departure testing of fully vaccinated non-essential travellers) and counterfactual scenario 2 (no pre-departure testing of any non-essential travellers). In C) and D), the essential traveller curve is identical for all three scenarios since the model for essential travellers was not repeated for the counterfactual scenarios