Table 1.

Country-level sociodemographic determinants of excess mortality*

		Unadjusted model on scaled data		Adjusted model on scaled data—population-related variables†		Adjusted model on scaled data—government and economy-related variables‡		Adjusted model on scaled data—health resources-related variables§
		Regression coefficient	P value	R2=0.101		R2=0.106		R2=0.089
				Regression coefficient	P value	Regression coefficient	P value	Regression coefficient	P value
Population variables	Population density	−0.11	0.0565	0.07	0.414
	Median age	−0.34	<0.001
	Percentage of population more than 65 years old	−0.46	<0.001	−0.07	0.280
	Life expectancy	−0.52	<0.001
	Hypertension	0.42	<0.001	0.54	<0.001
	Diabetes	0.62	<0.001	0.43	<0.001
	Obesity	0.38	<0.001	0.35	<0.001
	PM2.5 (air pollution)	0.32	<0.001	0.07	0.433
Government and economy	Gross domestic products (GDP)	−0.33	<0.001
	Human Development Index (HDI)	−0.53	<0.001			−0.28	<0.001
	Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI)	−0.71	<0.001
	Gini index	0.79	<0.001			0.66	<0.001
	Government Effectiveness	−0.55	<0.001
	Government revenue	−0.58	<0.001			−0.06	0.439
Health resources	Hospital beds per thousand population	−0.20	0.008					−0.26	<0.001
	Total medical doctors (per 10 000 population)	−0.04	0.511					−0.03	0.606
	Total nursing personnel (per 10 000 population)	−0.37	<0.001					0.04	0.541
	Universal health coverage	−0.48	<0.001
	Completeness of vital registration	0.02	0.75					0.13	0.023
	Healthcare Access and Quality Index (HAQ)	−0.62	<0.001					−0.67	<0.001

Bold fonts indicate statistically significant p-values, at an alpha level of 0.05.

*Kazakhstan and Peru were excluded from this analysis due to a completeness of vital registration systems of <90% which affects excess mortality estimates.

†Life expectancy removed from model due to collinearity (r≥0.60) with hypertension and median age due to collinearity (r≥0.94) with proportion of population 65+.

‡GDP, IHDI and government effectiveness were removed from model due to collinearity (r≥0.90) between them and with HDI.

§Universal health coverage removed from model due to collinearity (r≥0.80) with HAQ.