Figure 3.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from Least Absolue Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) models classifying 12-month transient cognitive decline using baseline to 12-month change scores on neuropsychological tests of attention, processing speed, and executive function (APE). A) Final LASSO machine learning model using 4-fold cross-validation including baseline APE scores as a selected predictor among 94 possible predictors. B) Final LASSO machine learning model excluding baseline APE scores as a predictor. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI), sensitivity (%, 95% CI), and specificity (%, 95% CI) are presented at the Youden Index. Polygon 95 confidence regions for the ROC curve are displayed.