Table 2.

FVPs, averted cholera cases, OCV campaign efficiency and percent of true cases averted across different modeling scenarios, 2022–2035

Threshold	Fully vaccinated population (million)		Averted cases (million)		OCV efficiency (averted cases per 1,000 FVPs)		Percent of true cases averted
	Clinical definition	Decentralized testing	Clinical definition	Decentralized testing	Clinical definition	Decentralized testing	Clinical definition	Decentralized testing
1/10,000 per year	391.8 (378.8–412.2)	274.6 (261.1–285.8)	0.76 (0.69–0.84)	0.71 (0.64–0.8)	1.9 (1.7–2.2)	2.6 (2.4–2.9)	44.7 (44.3–45.3)	41.8 (41–42.9)
2/10,000 per year	275.2 (264.5–283.9)	165.2 (153.9–179.4)	0.7 (0.64–0.79)	0.62 (0.55–0.71)	2.6 (2.3–2.8)	3.7 (3.4–4.2)	41.5 (40.8–42.7)	36.5 (35.4–38.1)
10/10,000 per year	65.2 (59.8–71)	30.1 (24.4–37.9)	0.45 (0.38–0.53)	0.33 (0.26–0.41)	6.9 (6–7.8)	10.8 (9.4–12.6)	26.5 (24.4–28.5)	19.2 (16.7–22.3)

For combinations of modeling scenarios that vary by incidence rate threshold and bacteriological confirmation capacity, we report the median estimates and 95% PIs in parentheses for FVP, true averted cases (millions), true averted cases per 1,000 FVPs (OCV efficiency) and percentage of true cases averted. ‘Clinical definition’ refers to a scenario without testing of suspected cases, while ‘decentralized testing’ refers to a scenario with systematic testing of suspected cases with RDT and culture in district-level laboratories.