Table 1.

Transition probabilities in the base case and sensitivity analysis

Transition probabilities	Base case value	Range of one-way sensitivity analysisa	Probabilistic sensitivity analysis		Reference
			α	β
Intact tooth to root caries	0.007	0.005–0.008	79	11,655	TIS [13]
Root caries to restoration	0.096	0.062–0.130	27	258	TIS
Restoration to endo treatment	0.268	0.157-0.690b	146	399	Sun et al. [15] Wang et al. [16]
Crown restoration after endo treatment	0.640	0.349-0.757b	281	158	Chu et al. [17] Qiu et al. [18]
Root caries to extraction	0.088	0.055–0.121	25	260	TIS
Direct restoration failure	0.079	0.012–0.146	5	58	Lo et al. [19]
RRroot caries in Fluoride treatment group	0.396	0.223–0.702	0.396c	0.097c	Tan et al. [12]

Abbreviation TIS, Taizhou Imaging Study; RR, risk ratio

^aRange of one-way sensitivity analysis was estimated from the 95% confidence interval of the base case value except where noted

^bRange of transition probability of restoration to endo treatment and crown restoration was estimated from the minimum and maximum of reference data

^cβ distribution parameters of RR_{root caries} in fluoride treatment group were set from the mean and 10% SD of the base case value