Figure 5: Trajectory of the Yamnaya expansion.

We use HapNe-LD to estimate the changes in effective population size over time of Yamnaya ancestors, performing the computation separately for the individuals from the earlier three hundred years (a) of our sampling, and the later three hundred years (b); shading shows uncertainty intervals. We infer an extraordinary population expansion (c) after 3642–3374 BCE (intersection of 95% confidence intervals for the two analyses for the minimum), from a time when the effective size is a few thousand to an order of magnitude larger.