Table 2.
Normoglycemia↔ iIFG →diabetes multistate Markov model annual probability of transition across states (overall and stratified by age, sex, and BMI)
| n | Annual transition probabilities, % (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||
| Normoglycemia → normoglycemia | 1,937 | 92.1 (91.2, 92.9) |
| Normoglycemia → iIFG | 276 | 7.5 (6.7, 8.3) |
| Normoglycemia → diabetes | 64 | 0.41 (0.34, 0.49) |
| iIFG → iIFG | 193 | 68.6 (65.2, 71.8) |
| iIFG → normoglycemia | 207 | 22.8 (19.6, 26.6) |
| iIFG → diabetes | 78 | 8.6 (7.3, 9.8) |
| Age ≤40 years | ||
| Normoglycemia → normoglycemia | 1,362 | 93.2 (92.1, 94.2) |
| Normoglycemia → iIFG | 164 | 6.4 (5.5, 7.4) |
| Normoglycemia → diabetes | 37 | 0.35 (0.27, 0.45) |
| iIFG → iIFG | 98 | 67.5 (62.7, 71.6) |
| iIFG → normoglycemia | 121 | 24.1 (19.9, 29.5) |
| iIFG → diabetes | 42 | 8.4 (6.8, 10.0) |
| Age >40 years | ||
| Normoglycemia → normoglycemia | 575 | 89.5 (87.4, 91.4) |
| Normoglycemia → iIFG | 112 | 9.9 (8.1, 11.9) |
| Normoglycemia → diabetes | 27 | 0.56 (0.41, 0.73) |
| iIFG → iIFG | 95 | 69.7 (64.4, 74.2) |
| iIFG → normoglycemia | 86 | 21.6 (17.0, 27.1) |
| iIFG → diabetes | 36 | 8.7 (6.7, 10.6) |
| Male participants | ||
| Normoglycemia → normoglycemia | 769 | 92.7 (91.2, 93.9) |
| Normoglycemia → iIFG | 87 | 6.8 (5.6, 8.1) |
| Normoglycemia → diabetes | 40 | 0.52 (0.38, 0.72) |
| iIFG → iIFG | 49 | 64.6 (56.9, 70.4) |
| iIFG → normoglycemia | 61 | 23.9 (17.9, 31.6) |
| iIFG → diabetes | 20 | 11.4 (9.0, 13.9) |
| Female participants | ||
| Normoglycemia → normoglycemia | 1,168 | 91.7 (90.6, 92.9) |
| Normoglycemia → iIFG | 189 | 7.9 (6.8, 9.0) |
| Normoglycemia → diabetes | 24 | 0.37 (0.28, 0.46) |
| iIFG → iIFG | 144 | 70.4 (66.5, 73.6) |
| iIFG → normoglycemia | 146 | 22.4 (18.9, 26.3) |
| iIFG → diabetes | 58 | 7.2 (5.9, 8.6) |
| BMI <23 kg/m2 | ||
| Normoglycemia → normoglycemia | 655 | 94.2 (92.4, 95.6) |
| Normoglycemia → iIFG | 59 | 5.5 (4.1, 7.1) |
| Normoglycemia → diabetes | 16 | 0.34 (0.21, 0.54) |
| iIFG → iIFG | 18 | 59.1 (45.6, 68.6) |
| iIFG → normoglycemia | 43 | 32.0 (23.1, 46.9) |
| iIFG → diabetes | 11 | 8.8 (5.7, 11.9) |
| BMI ≥23 kg/m2 | ||
| Normoglycemia → normoglycemia | 1,099 | 90.5 (89.2, 91.8) |
| Normoglycemia → iIFG | 194 | 8.9 (7.7, 10.2) |
| Normoglycemia → Diabetes | 38 | 0.48 (0.38, 0.59) |
| iIFG → iIFG | 158 | 69.6 (65.7, 72.9) |
| iIFG → normoglycemia | 153 | 22.1 (18.6, 26.3) |
| iIFG → diabetes | 63 | 8.3 (6.9, 9.8) |