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. 2024 Apr 24;15:3463. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-47556-2

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© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 5 — a Model structure of different antibody category levels and transmission between them. Antibody levels against N or S, respectively, are indicated by colors. b The inner grid presents the fitting results to mean measurements (with standard deviations) along with 90% confidence bands derived from parameter sampling. The aggregated levels of Anti-S and Anti-N antibodies are displayed in the lower row and right column, respectively. The prediction phase, where no new antibody data was measured, is highlighted. c First plot showing the fit of simulated incidences to measured national test positivity rates (mean and standard deviation taken per month). Second and third plots illustrating predictions of test positivity rates under hypothetical scenarios with vaccination rates 5 and 10 times as high as the actual rate. Last plot showing how different vaccination rates translate to vaccinated dosages. b, c Prediction simulations performed on n = 30,001 parameter samples after burn-in from Markov chain Monte Carlo. Sample sizes of data points provided in Supplementary Note 3 (Table SN7). Source data are provided as a Source Data file.