Table 3.
Expected impacts of thirty what-if scenarios upon the levels of avian diversity (last column) in the wetland Pantano Bruno in summer. The scenario S0 (baseline scenario) represented the number of waterbird species in 2016 and was here the reference point against which the other scenarios could be compared. The cells in grey indicate the simulated changes with respect to S0. The letters among parentheses beneath each wetland trait indicate whether it was a benefit (B) or a cost (C) for the waterbird species. Water discharges benefitted avian diversity for the reasons explained in the main text.
| Code | Counterfactuality | Water Level Fluctuations (B) | Water Salinity (C) | Water Diversions (C) | Water Discharges (B) | Tourism Pressure (C) | No. of Waterbird Species |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S0 | none | 6.8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
| S21 | increase in water salinity | 6.8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| S22 | increase in tourism pressure | 6.8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 18 |
| S23 | decrease in water discharges | 6.8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| S24 | increase in water diversions | 6.8 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| S25 | water level fluctuations = 5 cm | 5.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
| S26 | water level fluctuations = 0 cm | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| S27 | S21 and S22 together | 6.8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| S28 | S21 and S23 together | 6.8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
| S29 | S21 and S24 together | 6.8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| S30 | S21 and S25 together | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| S31 | S21 and S26 together | 0.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| S32 | S21, S23, and S25 together | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| S33 | worst possible scenario | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| S34 | decrease in tourism pressure | 6.8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| S35 | increase in water discharges | 6.8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| S36 | decrease in water diversions | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
| S37 | water level fluctuations = 10 cm | 10.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| S38 | water level fluctuations = 15 cm | 15.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| S39 | water level fluctuations = 20 cm | 20.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| S40 | water level fluctuations = 25 cm | 25.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| S41 | water level fluctuations = 30 cm | 30.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 29 |
| S42 | S35 and S37 together | 10.0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 23 |
| S43 | S35 and S41 together | 30.0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 31 |
| S44 | S34 and S37 together | 10.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 21 |
| S45 | best possible scenario | 30.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 34 |
| S46 | S21, S35, and S36 together | 6.8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| S47 | S25, S35, and S36 together | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| S48 | S26, S35, and S36 together | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| S49 | S22, S24, S35, and S41 together | 30.0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 22 |
| S50 | S21 and S38 together | 15.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 19 |