Table 2.
Results from sensitivity and scenario analyses
| Parameter | Value | Number of avoided cases over 3 years | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Symptomatic RSV-ARI cases | RSV-LRTD cases | RSV-related hospitalizations | RSV-related deaths | |||
| Annual incidence of symptomatic RSV-ARIa | ||||||
| Lower bound | 0.027 | 1,744,981 | 1,163,541 | 120,624 | 9856 | |
| Upper bound | 0.063 | 3,956,611 | 2,630,098 | 272,671 | 22,280 | |
| Percentage of symptomatic RSV-ARI cases that are RSV-LRTDb | ||||||
| Lower bound | 41.9% | – | 1,730,502 | 179,405 | 14,659 | |
| Upper bound | 53.3% | – | 2,202,873 | 228,374 | 18,661 | |
| Percentage of RSV-LRTD cases resulting in hospitalizationc | ||||||
| Lower bound | 60–64 years: 1.9% | – | – | 105,444 | 8761 | |
| 65–74 years: 4.7% | ||||||
| 75–84 years: 7.1% | ||||||
| ≥ 85 years: 12.1% | ||||||
| Upper bound | 60–64 years: 4.7% | – | – | 316,539 | 25,864 | |
| 65–74 years: 16.6% | ||||||
| ≥ 75 years: 22.2% | ||||||
| Probability of death given RSV-LRTDd | ||||||
| Lower bound | 60–64 years: 0.001173 | – | – | – | 10,472 | |
| 65–74 years: 0.004126 | ||||||
| ≥ 75 years: 0.009505 | ||||||
| Upper bound | 60–64 years: 0.003159 | – | – | – | 22,846 | |
| 65–74 years: 0.011116 | ||||||
| ≥ 75 years: 0.017430 | ||||||
| Peak VEe | RSV-ARI | RSV-LRTD | ||||
| Lower bound | 56.4% | 65.8% | 1,769,034 | 1,188,841 | 123,416 | 10,091 |
| Upper bound | 94.0% | 99.2% | 4,440,967 | 2,378,548 | 246,494 | 20,138 |
| VE monthly waninge | RSV-ARI | RSV-LRTD | ||||
| Lower bound | 0.3% | 0.1% | 5,133,899 | 3,014,020 | 311,826 | 25,455 |
| Upper bound | 4.3% | 4.3% | 1,729,955 | 1,149,259 | 119,519 | 9780 |
| RSV vaccination coverage | 60–64 years | ≥ 65 years | ||||
| 25.0% of base case | 13.1% | 18.5% | 738,616 | 491,674 | 50,973 | 4165 |
| 50.0% of base case | 26.2% | 37.0% | 1,477,232 | 983,348 | 101,945 | 8330 |
| 75.0% of base case | 39.3% | 55.4% | 2,215,849 | 1,475,022 | 152,918 | 12,495 |
| 125.0% of base case | 65.5% | 92.4% | 3,693,081 | 2,458,370 | 254,863 | 20,825 |
| 100.0% coverage | 100.0% | 100.0% | 4,327,244 | 2,881,204 | 282,591 | 23,020 |
ARI Acute respiratory illness; LRTD lower respiratory tract disease; RSV respiratory syncytial virus; VE vaccine efficacy
aLower and upper bounds for incidence of symptomatic RSV-ARI were based on the minimum and maximum seasonal values derived from Falsey et al. [2] adjusted with weighting derived from DiazGranados et al. [23]
bLower and upper bounds for the percentage of symptomatic RSV-ARI cases that are RSV-LRTD were based on 95% confidence intervals for base-case values reported from the placebo arm of the AReSVi-006 phase 3 clinical trial over two full seasons [20] (and data on file)
cLower bound for the percentage of RSV-LRTD cases resulting in hospitalization was based on the age-specific RSV-related hospitalization rates reported by Branche et al. (using the lowest RSV-related hospitalization rates reported from the study’s Rochester, New York site during the 2019–2020 RSV season) [30]. The upper bound was based on the modeled RSV-related hospitalization rate from Herring et al. [26]
dLower and upper bounds for probability of death given RSV-LRTD were based on the 95% confidence intervals for the base-case probabilities
eFor peak VE and monthly waning parameters, lower and upper bounds were based on the 97.5% confidence intervals for the base-case values (see Table S4 in the Supplementary Material)