Table 2.

Observed and predicted 30-day unplanned readmission rates by model and state.

			Observed (%)					Predicteda (%)
			MD (n=1,857,658)		FL (n=8,733,002)		LACEb						HOSPITALc					CMSd as-is					CMS retrained
							MDe (n=1,857,658)			FLf (n=8,733,002)		MD (n=1,857,658)			FL (n=8,733,002)		MD (n=714,917)			FL (n=2,636,671)		MD (n=357,458)				FL (n=1,318,335)
Total			11.31		14.34		14.48			15.88		12			14.61		10.48			10.26		14.71				16.5
Race
	White	11.13		13.94		12.92			14.81		11.62			14.07		10.27			10.11		14.14			15.97
	Black	12.77		17.14		18.62			21.33		14.12			18.26		10.82			10.85		15.84			18.93
Income
	Other	10.59		13.6		12.88			14.62		10.84			13.66		10.37			10.19		14.3				16.17
	Low	12.73		16.03		17.6			18.72		14.29			16.77		10.67			10.43		15.46				17.25

^aPredicted: the predicted readmission rates for LACE and HOSPITAL were calculated as the percentage of patients at high risk of unplanned readmission based on the model output for the group; and the predicted readmission rates for the two CMS models were the predicted probability of being at high risk of unplanned readmission for the group.

^bLACE: The LACE Index for readmission risk.

^cHOSPITAL: The modified HOSPITAL score for readmission risk.

^dCMS: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (readmission measure).

^eMD: Maryland.

^fFL: Florida.