Table 5.

Prediction performance for PFS of risk score

Time	PFS probability	Accuracy (%)	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)
3 months	≥ 90%	60.2 (50.1–69.7) [62/103]	56.0 (45.2–66.4) [51/91]	91.7 (61.5–99.8) [11/12]	98.1 (89.7–99.9) [51/52]	21.6 (11.3–35.3) [11/51]
	≥ 75%	83.5 (74.9–83.5) [86/103]	93.4 (86.2–97.5) [85/91]	8.3 (0.2–38.5) [1/12]	88.5 (80.4–94.1) [85/96]	14.3 (0.4–57.9) [1/7]
6 months	≥ 60%	75.7 (66.3–83.6) [78/103]	73.1 (59.0–84.8) [38/52]	78.4 (64.7–88.7) [40/51]	79.6 (63.3–88.2) [38/49]	74.1 (60.3–85.0) [40/54]
	≥ 40%	70.9 (61.1–79.4) [73/103]	80.6 (62.5–92.5) [25/31]	66.7 (54.6–77.3) [48/72]	51.0 (36.3–65.6) [25/49]	88.9 (77.4–95.8) [48/54]
	≥ 20%	58.3 (48.1–67.9) [60/103]	75.0 (42.8–94.5) [9/12]	56.0 (45.2–66.4) [51/91]	18.4 (8.8–32.0) [9/49]	94.4 (84.6–98.8) [51/54]
12 months	≥ 30%	94.4 (84.6–98.8) [70/103]	83.6 (73.3–91.2) [61/73]	33.3 (14.7–49.4) [9/30]	77.6 (63.3–88.2) [61/82]	42.9 (21.8–66.0) [9/21]
	≥ 20%	62.1 (52.0–71.5) [64/103]	92.2 (97.8–81.1) [47/51]	53.1 (34.7–70.9) [17/32]	57.3 (45.9–68.2) [47/82]	81.0 (58.1–94.6) [17/21]
	≥ 10%	46.6 (36.7–56.7) [48/103]	85.7 (57.2–98.2) [29/31]	26.4 (16.7–38.1) [19/72]	35.4 (25.1–46.7) [29/82]	90.1 (69.6–98.8) [19/21]

Data are percentages with 95% CIs in parentheses and numbers of observations in brackets

PFS progression-free survival, CI confidence interval, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value