Table 3.

OLS: Relationship between unintentional overdose death rates per 100,000 and the future fraction of BCI lab drug tests containing MA (without synthetic opioids), 2015–2021.

	+1 Quarter	+2 Quarters	+3 Quarters	+4 Quarters
Overall Overdose Death Rate	-0.0013 (0.0034)	-0.0060* (0.0034)	-0.0030 (0.0032)	0.0004 (0.0043)
Fentanyl Overdose Death Rate	-0.0000 (0.0009)	-0.0008 (0.0010)	-0.0002 (0.0009)	0.0009 (0.0012)
Observations	2262	2175	2088	2001

Notes: The table shows coefficients for eight separate estimates with the independent variable of interest being Overall or Fentanyl-specific Overdose Death Rates and the dependent variable being the fraction of BCI lab tests that are positive for methamphetamine 1, 2, 3, or 4 quarters in the future. Robust standard errors, clustered at the county level, are reported in parentheses. Each observation is at the county-quarter level from 2015 through the third quarter of 2021. The estimates control for the quarterly average unemployment rate, quarterly COVID 19 case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths, as well as quarterly per capita MME of prescription opioids, and per capita mg of prescription buprenorphine. Estimates include quarter and county fixed effects.

(* p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01).