Table 3.

Predictive performance (c-statistic) when a 7-year lookback period is selected (> 65 years old as of April 1st, 2019, Québec [Canada], n > 1.4 million)

				c-statisticb by Health outcomes
List of diseasesa		MM definition	Prev. (%)	1-year mortality	Hospitalisation (≥ 1/y)	Frequent visit to ED (≥ 3/y)	Frequent visit to GP (≥ 7/y)	Frequent visit to specialist physicians (≥ 10/y)	Polypharmacy (≥ 10/y)
All-inclusive list (L60)		MM2+	76.7	0.768	0.642	0.667	0.667	0.636	0.687
		MM3+	61.0	0.779	0.659	0.688	0.685	0.670	0.717
		MM4+	47.9	0.788	0.672	0.706	0.693	0.687	0.733
Core list (L20)		MM2+	46.8	0.791	0.671	0.705	0.695	0.672	0.734
		MM3+	27.5	0.798	0.676	0.713	0.692	0.666	0.722
		MM4+	15.8	0.798	0.667	0.706	0.677	0.640	0.691
Charlson & Elixhauser list (L31)		MM2+	50.8	0.797	0.669	0.702	0.678	0.673	0.732
		MM3+	33.9	0.811	0.680	0.716	0.677	0.676	0.731
		MM4+	23.7	0.815	0.679	0.717	0.670	0.660	0.714

Abbreviation: ED: emergency department; GP: general practitioners; MM2+: multimorbidity defined as ≥ 2 chronic conditions; MM3+: multimorbidity defined as ≥ 3 chronic conditions; MM4+: multimorbidity defined as ≥ 4 chronic conditions; Prev.: prevalence; y: year

a: The All-inclusive list groups all ICD codes of chronic diseases into 60 chronic conditions; the Core list includes 20 chronic diseases associated with a high Disable-adjusted life years (DALY) impact; the Charlson & Elixhauser list combines 31 medical conditions included in both indices.

b: The c-statistic value in bold indicates the maximal value observed for a specific health outcome, for each list of diseases