Table 2.
Changes in transmissibility (time-varying effective reproduction numbers, ) during the two weeks before and after two events: a major snowstorm in February 2019 and the initiation of COVID-19 social distancing measures in March 2020
| Pathogen | Major snowstorm, February 2019 |
Early COVID-19 restrictions, March 2020 |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change in | P-value | Change in | P-value | |
| Influenza A/H3N2 | -12 [-17, -7] % | 1 × 10-16 | Not circulating | |
| Influenza A/H1N1 | -19 [-24, -15] % | 1 ×10-16 | -43 [-54, -33] % | 1 × 10-16 |
| Influenza B | Not circulating | -15 [-17, -12] % | 1 × 10-16 | |
| RSV A | -40 [-45, -35] % | 1 × 10-16 | -9 [-13, -5] % | 1 × 10-16 |
| RSV B | -37 [-40, -32] % | 1 × 10-16 | -4 [-5, -2] % | 1 × 10-16 |
| hMPV | 19 [16, 22] % | 0.001 | -21 [-22, -19] % | 1 × 10-16 |
| hPIV 1 + 2 | Not circulating | Not circulating | ||
| hPIV 3 + 4 | 14 [9, 18] % | 0.001 | -21.5 [-22, -21] % | 1 × 10-16 |
| hCoV 229E + OC43 | -10 [-14, -5] % | 1 × 10-16 | -20 [-21, -19] % | 1 × 10-16 |
| hCoV HKU1 + NL63 | -18 [-19, -17] % | 1 × 10-16 | -25 [-28, -22] % | 1 × 10-16 |
| hRV | 2 [0, 3] % | 0.073 | -29 [-32, -26] % | 1 × 10-16 |
| EV | -33 [-40, -25] % | 1 × 10-16 | -31 [-53, -13] % | 0.003 |
| AdV | -39 [-43, -33] % | 1 × 10-16 | -33 [-45, -21] % | 1 × 10-16 |
| SARS-CoV-2 | Not circulating | -39 [-54, -25] % | 1 × 10-16 | |
We compared values before and after each event using nonparametric bootstrap tests for the ratio of two means. Mean ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and two-sided p-values were estimated from 1000 resamples.