TABLE 1. Predictive model iterations week over week among shelter residents based on available case data during measles outbreak associated with a migrant shelter — Chicago, Illinois, 2024.
| Date | No. of observed measles cases among shelter residents | Median model-predicted final outbreak size (IQR) | Median model-predicted final rash onset date | Relative % difference between median predicted and observed final outbreak size* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 |
7 |
29 (20–39) |
Apr 16 |
−44 |
| Mar 18 |
18 |
38 (31–41) |
Apr 18 |
−28 |
| Mar 25 |
47 |
60 (57–65) |
Apr 20 |
15 |
| Apr 1 |
51 |
60 (58–63) |
Apr 20 |
15 |
| Apr 8 | 52 | 58 (56–60) | Apr 18 | 12 |
* Calculated by taking the percent difference between the predicted outbreak size as of each date and the final observed outbreak size among shelter residents (52). Negative numbers reflect underestimates of total outbreak size, and positive numbers reflect overestimates of total outbreak size.