Table 2.

Observed and counterfactual weekly DS-TB case notifications^a in the first week of the COVID-19 emergency declaration in Peru.

Scenario	Total population			Non-incarcerated population			Incarcerated population
	Cases	95% CI		Cases	95% CI		Cases	95% CI
Observed	234	215	253	196	180	212	42	37	47
Counterfactual	559	534	584	506	484	528	51	45	57

	% Dropb	95% CI		% Dropb	95% CI		% Dropb	95% CI
Observed vs. Counterfactual	58.1	56.7	59.7	61.2	59.9	62.7	17.7	17.5	17.9

^aBased on predicted values from each model.

^b% drop = $\frac{counterfactualcases-observedcases}{counterfactualcases}$ ∗ 100.