Table 4.

Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests

MPM II0						MPM II24
Decile	N	PD	AD	PS	AS	Decile	N	PD	AD	PS	AS
1	96	1.46	5	94.54	91	1	68	1.32	1	66.68	67
2	97	3.43	6	93.57	91	2	68	3.04	7	64.96	61
3	97	6.38	10	90.62	87	3	68	5.23	6	62.77	62
4	97	9.48	4	87.52	93	4	69	8.72	7	60.28	62
5	97	15.85	22	81.15	75	5	68	12.60	14	55.40	54
6	97	23.05	26	73.95	71	6	68	19.88	17	48.12	51
7	97	35.47	27	61.53	70	7	68	29.04	21	38.96	47
8	97	50.99	55	46.01	42	8	68	38.89	36	29.11	32
9	97	71.98	68	25.02	29	9	68	50.88	46	17.12	22
10	96	90.39	87	5.61	9	10	68	62.86	60	5.14	8
C-statistic:	26.61		P value:	<0.001		C-statistic:	14.71		P value:	0.06
APACHE II						SAPS II
Decile	N	PD	AD	PS	AS	Decile	N	PD	AD	PS	AS
1	70	1.53	2	68.47	68	1	71	0.74	3	70.26	68
2	68	3.57	2	64.43	66	2	72	2.16	8	69.84	64
3	69	5.82	7	63.18	62	3	65	3.76	8	61.24	57
4	68	9.15	11	58.85	57	4	74	7.13	11	66.87	63
5	66	12.37	18	53.63	48	5	72	10.79	15	61.21	57
6	68	17.28	13	50.72	55	6	63	13.98	21	49.02	42
7	69	24.68	35	44.32	34	7	68	22.09	24	45.91	44
8	66	32.39	25	33.61	41	8	68	33.70	31	34.30	37
9	70	48.57	49	21.43	21	9	64	45.54	42	18.46	22
10	67	59.24	53	7.76	14	10	64	57.24	52	6.76	12
C-statistic:	21.87		P value:	0.005		C-statistic:	43.36		P value:	<0.001

Degrees of freedom = 8. PD, predicted to die; PS, predicted to survive; AD, actually died; AS, actually survived.