TABLE 2.
Model Outputs, Primary Scenario
| Outcome | Primary Scenario (Early Invasive Ventilation Beneficial) | Secondary Scenario (Late Invasive Ventilation Safe) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Usual Care | Threshold A | Usual Care | Threshold B | |
| Durations (d) | ||||
| ICU, non-IMV duration | 4.65 (3.42–6.43) | 4.51 (3.26–6.24) | 4.67 (3.34–6.46) | 4.72 (3.42–6.7) |
| IMV duration (among ventilated people) | 8.62 (6.15–12.8) | 8.93 (6.35–13.3) | 8.5 (5.76–12.4) | 8.21 (5.52–12.2) |
| Ward duration | 5.69 (4.24–7.66) | 5.58 (4.12–7.49) | 5.68 (4.24–7.76) | 5.73 (4.25–7.75) |
| Hospital outcomes (%) | ||||
| Invasive ventilation | 30.4 (16.6–48.7) | 62.4 (42.8–80.2) | 27.6 (13.1–45.4) | 20.2 (7.6–38.1) |
| Survival | 75.1 (53.6–92.1) | 78.1 (53.6–93.4) | 74.5 (51.5–91.8) | 74.6 (53.5–92) |
| Long-term disability | 6.23 (2.88–11.3) | 11.5 (6.46–17.8) | 5.73 (2.1–10.8) | 4.56 (1.4–9.7) |
| Lifetime outcomes | ||||
| Life expectancy (yr) | 10.9 (7.35–14) | 11.3 (7.36–14.4) | 10.8 (7.18–14.1) | 10.7 (7.25–13.9) |
| Quality-adjusted life years | 8.28 (5.56–10.6) | 8.45 (5.57–10.8) | 8.2 (5.46–10.7) | 8.23 (5.58–10.7) |
| Cost (1000s CAD) | 75.5 (62.9–90.3) | 86.9 (73.2–103) | 74.7 (62.7–88.5) | 71.7 (61–85) |
| Net monetary benefit (1000s CAD) | 752 (487–986) | 758 (472–990) | 746 (474–990) | 751 (488–992) |
| Comparative outcomes | ||||
| Probability of highest net monetary benefit | 0.487 | 0.513 | 0.497 | 0.503 |
| Incremental cost-utility ratio (CAD) | Reference | 67,400 | 0 | –115,000 |
CADs = Canadian dollars, IMV = invasive mechanical ventilation.
The model outputs with the mean and 95% credible interval for each strategy.
Net monetary benefit calculated using a willingness-to-pay of 100,000 CAD per quality-adjusted life year. Incremental cost-utility ratio calculated for each threshold compared with usual care.