Fig. 2. An Mtb-specific SeroScore differentiates progressors from non-progressors.
a, For all individuals at all timepoints, Spearman correlations were calculated between all measured Mtb-specific antibody features and RISK6 score (n = 377 measurements) or transcript expression levels of each of its six components (n = 312 measurements). The heatmap indicates Spearman correlation coefficient for each comparison. b, A multivariate SeroScore was developed on the basis of systems serology data in ACS. The heatmap represents Z-scored data for the six features included in the SeroScore. Each column represents one individual (n = 36 progressors and n = 104 non-progressors). Individuals are sorted by overall SeroScore as shown in the track beneath the heatmap. RISK6 score and progressor/non-progressor status of each individual are also indicated in tracks. c, ROC curves developed assessing the ability to differentiate progressors (n = 29) from non-progressors (n = 99) of RISK6 (left), SeroScore (middle) and both RISK6 and SeroScore in combination (right). ROC curves were generated 50 times using randomly selected 80% of samples with group stratification. The mean curve is indicated in blue, with grey shading indicating one standard deviation. The mean AUC with 95% confidence interval is indicated. d–f, Additional ROC curves developed only including progressors in time windows 0–9 months before diagnosis (n = 19 progressors) (d), 9–18 months before diagnosis (n = 18 progressors) (e) and 18–27 months before diagnosis (n = 10 progressors) (f).