Table 4.
Mortality associations and discriminative capacity of individual exposures and combinations of exposures
| Exposure | Age and sex included in all models | Mutually-adjusted model | Minimal model | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazard ratio (95% CI) | P value | C-index (95% CI) | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | P value | C-index (95% CI) | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | P value | C-index (95% CI) | |
| ALM index | 1.01 (0.98,1.05) | 0.520 | 0.65 (0.64,0.66) | 0.70 (0.69,0.70) | 0.69 (0.68,0.69) | ||||
| Grip strength | 1.24 (1.20,1.29) | < 0.001 | 0.66 (0.65,0.67) | 1.15 (1.10,1.19) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Gait speed | 1.35 (1.30,1.39) | < 0.001 | 0.67 (0.66,0.68) | 1.21 (1.17,1.26) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Age | 1.79 (1.75,1.84) | < 0.001 | 0.65 (0.64,0.66) | 1.63 (1.58,1.68) | < 0.001 | 1.78 (1.73,1.83) | < 0.001 | ||
| Sex (female) | 0.70 (0.64,0.78) | < 0.001 | 0.65 (0.64,0.66) | 0.50 (0.44,0.56) | < 0.001 | 0.67 (0.61,0.74) | < 0.001 | ||
| BMI | 1.05 (1.02,1.08) | 0.002 | 0.65 (0.65,0.66) | 0.98 (0.95,1.01) | 0.156 | ||||
| Current smoker | 1.91 (1.71,2.13) | < 0.001 | 0.66 (0.65,0.67) | 1.81 (1.61,2.02) | < 0.001 | 1.93 (1.73,2.16) | < 0.001 | ||
| High alcohol consumption | 1.01 (0.94,1.09) | 0.761 | 0.65 (0.64,0.66) | ||||||
| Previous fracture | 1.09 (1.02,1.16) | 0.010 | 0.65 (0.64,0.66) | 1.03 (0.97,1.10) | 0.324 | ||||
| Femoral neck BMD T-score | 0.99 (0.97,1.02) | 0.615 | 0.65 (0.64,0.66) | ||||||
| Physical activity | 0.89 (0.86,0.91) | < 0.001 | 0.66 (0.65,0.66) | 0.96 (0.93,0.99) | 0.004 | ||||
| Ethnicity (BAME) | 1.14 (1.06,1.23) | < 0.001 | 0.65 (0.65,0.66) | 0.91 (0.84,0.99) | 0.025 | ||||
| Left school early | 1.33 (1.22,1.44) | < 0.001 | 0.66 (0.65,0.66) | 1.08 (0.99,1.18) | 0.082 | 1.18 (1.09,1.29) | < 0.001 | ||
| Fall in previous year | 1.11 (1.04,1.19) | 0.001 | 0.65 (0.65,0.66) | 1.00 (0.94,1.07) | 0.889 | ||||
| Self-rated health (< good) | 1.86 (1.73,2.00) | < 0.001 | 0.67 (0.66,0.67) | 1.39 (1.29,1.50) | < 0.001 | 1.54 (1.43,1.66) | < 0.001 | ||
| Low cognitive function | 1.71 (1.52,1.92) | < 0.001 | 0.66 (0.65,0.67) | 1.44 (1.27,1.64) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Number of comorbidities | 1.22 (1.20,1.25) | < 0.001 | 0.67 (0.66,0.68) | 1.16 (1.13,1.18) | < 0.001 | 1.19 (1.16,1.21) | < 0.001 | ||
Hazard ratios shown per SD lower level of ALM index, grip strength and gait speed; hazard ratios per SD higher level shown for other continuous exposures
C-index Harrell’s Concordance Index, MrOS Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study, Health ABC Health, Aging and Body Composition Study, HCS Hertfordshire Cohort Study, BAME Black, Asian and minority ethnic, ALM Appendicular lean mass
High alcohol consumption: MrOS US (> 7 drinks per week); Health ABC (> 1 drink per day); HCS (> 14 units per week)
Physical activity: MrOS US (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly score); Health ABC (Mcal/week); HCS (mins/day)
Left school early: MrOS US (did not complete high school); Health ABC (did not complete Grade 12); HCS (left school before age 15 years)
Previous fracture: MrOS US (fracture since age 50 years); fracture since age 45 for Health ABC and HCS
Low cognitive function: MrOS US and Health ABC (Modified Mini-Mental State Exam score < 80); HCS (Mini-Mental State Exam score < 24)
Number of comorbidities out of: heart disease, lung disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, arthritis, osteoporosis, thyroid disease, Parkinson's and cancer