. 2024 Apr 30;13(9):e031861. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.123.031861

Table 2.

Association Between BMI Variability (Measured in SD and CV, per SD) and Incident HF

Cohort	SD HR (95% CI), P value			CV HR (95% CI), P value
Cohort	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
Overall	1.12 (1.10–1.14), P<0.0001*	1.05 (1.02–1.07), P=0.0002*	1.05 (1.03–1.08), P<0.0001*	1.11 (1.08–1.14), P<0.0001*	1.06 (1.04–1.09), P<0.0001*	1.07 (1.04–1.10), P<0.0001*
Female sex	1.15 (1.11–1.19), P<0.0001*	1.07 (1.03–1.12), P=0.0009*	1.09 (1.04–1.13), P=0.0001*	1.14 (1.09–1.19), P<0.0001*	1.09 (1.04–1.14), P<0.0001*	1.11 (1.06–1.16), P<0.0001*
Male sex	1.10 (1.08–1.13), P<0.0001*	1.03 (1–1.06), P=0.0674	1.03 (1.00–1.06), P=0.0880	1.09 (1.05–1.13), P<0.0001*	1.04 (1.01–1.08), P=0.0178*	1.04 (1.00–1.08), P=0.0422*
Aged <60 y	1.15 (1.11–1.19), P<0.0001*	1.07 (1.02–1.12), P=0.0024*	1.07 (1.02–1.12), P=0.0072*	1.14 (1.09–1.2), P<0.0001*	1.09 (1.04–1.15), P=0.0004*	1.09 (1.03–1.15), P=0.0018*
Aged ≥60 y	1.11 (1.09–1.14), P<0.0001*	1.04 (1.01–1.07), P=0.0076*	1.05 (1.02–1.08), P=0.0028*	1.1 (1.07–1.14), P<0.0001*	1.05 (1.02–1.09), P=0.0006*	1.06 (1.03–1.09), P=0.0004*
No diabetes	1.11 (1.09–1.14), P<0.0001*	1.04 (1.01–1.07), P=0.0023*	1.05 (1.02–1.08), P=0.0012*	1.11 (1.08–1.14), P<0.0001*	1.06 (1.03–1.09), P<0.0001*	1.06 (1.03–1.10), P<0.0001
Diabetes	1.17 (1.11–1.23), P<0.0001*	1.08 (1.02–1.16), P=0.0119*	1.09 (1.02–1.16), P=0.0073*	1.15 (1.08–1.22), P<0.0001*	1.10 (1.03–1.18), P=0.0053*	1.10 (1.03–1.18), P=0.0052*
No hypertension	1.11 (1.09–1.14), P<0.0001*	1.05 (1.01–1.08), P=0.0037*	1.05 (1.01–1.08), P=0.0049*	1.11 (1.08–1.15), P<0.0001*	1.06 (1.03–1.10), P=0.0003*	1.06 (1.03–1.10), P=0.0009*
Hypertension	1.13 (1.1–1.17), P<0.0001*	1.05 (1.01–1.09), P=0.0157*	1.06 (1.01–1.10), P=0.0091*	1.11 (1.07–1.16), P<0.0001*	1.06 (1.02–1.11), P=0.0030*	1.07 (1.02–1.12), P=0.0025
Normal weight (enrollment BMI ≥18.5 and <25 kg/m²)	1.07 (1.01–1.13), P=0.03*	1.09 (1.02–1.18), P=0.016*	1.06 (0.97–1.17), P=0.1838	1.08 (1.02–1.15), P=0.0078*	1.10 (1.03–1.18), P=0.0068*	1.08 (1.00–1.16), P=0.0627
Overweight (enrollment BMI ≥25 and <30 kg/m²)	1.07 (1.03–1.11), P=0.0008*	1.06 (1.01–1.11), P=0.0118*	1.06 (1.01–1.11), P=0.0127*	1.08 (1.03–1.13), P=0.0007*	1.08 (1.02–1.13), P=0.0029*	1.08 (1.03–1.13), P=0.0031*
Obese (enrollment BMI ≥30 kg/m²)	1.13 (1.08–1.17), P<0.0001*	1.06 (1.02–1.11), P=0.0039*	1.06 (1.01–1.11), P=0.0142*	1.09 (1.04–1.15), P=0.0004*	1.08 (1.03–1.14), P=0.0011*	1.07 (1.02–1.13), P=0.0063*
BMI increase (positive slope [kg/m² per year])	1.18 (1.14–1.21) P<0.0001*	1.09 (1.05–1.13) P<0.0001*	1.06 (1.01–1.10), P=0.0091*	1.15 (1.11–1.20) P<0.0001*	1.10 (1.06–1.15) P<0.0001*	1.07 (1.02–1.12), P=0.0037*
BMI decrease (negative slope [kg/m² per year])	0.97 (0.88–1.06) P=0.4973	0.98 (0.87–1.10) P=0.7086	1.00 (0.79–1.27), P=0.9996	0.99 (0.90–1.08) P=0.7851	1.00 (0.90–1.12) P=0.9809	1.05 (0.87–1.27), P=0.6148

Model 1: adjusted for age, sex, smoking history (current or previous smoking vs never smoking), frequent alcohol consumption (≥3 times per week vs less frequent), diabetes, hypertension, heart attack history, stroke history, atrial fibrillation history, high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, low‐density lipoprotein, total cholesterol, triglycerides, and estimated glomerular filtration rate.

Model 2: model 1+within‐participant mean BMI across longitudinal measures.

Model 3: model 2+participant‐specific random slope of BMI change per year.

In stratified analyses, corresponding variable for the stratification was not included (eg, sex was excluded in women or men only analysis).

Stratified analysis among underweight group was not performed because of the small sample size and number of events. BMI indicates body mass index; CV, coefficient of variation; and HF, heart failure.

* P<0.05 used for defining statistical significance.