Table 1.
Characteristics of the study cohort.
| Parameter | Category | Pancreatic cancer diagnosed (Col %) | Pancreatic cancer not diagnosed (Col %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Number | 767 | 252,999 |
| Age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes | Mean (SD) | 70.1 (9.1) | 60.1 (12.5) |
| Sex | Female | 339 (44.2) | 108,558 (42.8) |
| Male | 428 (55.8) | 145,208 (57.2) | |
| Townsend deprivation score fifth | 1 (most affluent) | 234 (30.51) | 56,942 (22.51) |
| 2 | 210 (27.38) | 53,423 (21.12) | |
| 3 | 134 (17.47) | 52,495 (20.75) | |
| 4 | 122 (15.91) | 47,308 (18.70) | |
| 5 (most deprived) | 67 (8.74) | 42,263 (16.70) | |
| Not recorded | 0 | 568 (0.22) | |
| Ethnicity | White | 582 (75.9) | 166,675 (65.7) |
| South Asian | 20 (2.6) | 27,312 (10.8) | |
| Black | 17 (2.2) | 12,801 (5.0) | |
| Other | 20 (2.6) | 14,941 (5.9) | |
| Not recorded | 128 (16.7) | 32,027 (12.6) | |
| Smoking status | Non-smoker | 353 (46.0) | 126,840 (50.0) |
| Ex-smoker | 270 (35.2) | 81,121 (32.0) | |
| Light smoker (1–9/day) | 80 (10.4) | 22,327 (8.8) | |
| Moderate smoker (10–19/day) | 39 (5.1) | 12,846 (5.1) | |
| Heavy smoker (20+/day) | 22 (2.9) | 10,117 (4.0) | |
| Not recorded | <10 | 515 (0.2) | |
| Alcohol intake | Non-drinker | 302 (39.4) | 112,447 (44.3) |
| Trivial <1 u/day | 195 (25.4) | 64,131 (25.3) | |
| Light 1–2 u/day | 114 (14.9) | 28,223 (11.1) | |
| Moderate 3–6 u/day | 108 (14.1) | 30,108 (11.9) | |
| Heavy or very heavy 7+ u/day | 17 (2.2) | 5465 (2.2) | |
| Not recorded | 31 (4.0) | 13,392 (5.3) | |
| BMI | Not recorded | 125 (16.3) | 42,482 (16.7) |
| Mean (SD) | 29.5 (5.7) | 32.7 (6.7) | |
| Acute pancreatitis | 22 (2.9) | 3092 (1.2) | |
| Chronic pancreatitis | 14 (1.8) | 1695 (0.7) | |
| Venous thromboembolism | 52 (6.8) | 8908 (3.5) | |
| Family history of GI cancer | 17 (2.2) | 4867 (1.9) | |
| Asthma | 106 (13.8) | 38,698 (15.2) | |
| H. pylori infection | 27 (3.5) | 11,365 (4.5) | |
| Gastro-oesophageal reflux | 100 (13.0) | 32,720 (12.9) | |
| Gallstones | 41 (5.3) | 12,690 (5.0) | |
| Family history of diabetes | 143 (18.6) | 72,791 (28.7) | |
| Hypertension | 423 (55.1) | 119,653 (47.2) | |
| Breast cancer | 24 (3.1) | 4505 (1.8) | |
| Prostate cancer | 17 (2.2) | 3586 (1.4) | |
| Abdominal paina | 83 (10.8) | 8012 (3.2) | |
| Back paina | 53 (6.9) | 1997 (5.5) | |
| Constipationa | 21 (2.7) | 2392 (0.9) | |
| Diarrhoeaa | 18 (2.3) | 2820 (1.1) | |
| Heartburna | 18 (2.3) | 2877 (1.1) | |
| Indigestiona | 17 (2.2) | 2517 (1.0) | |
| Jaundicea | 14 (1.8) | 122 (<0.1) | |
| Nauseaa | 11 (1.4) | 838 (0.3) | |
| Tirednessa | 33 (4.3) | 8615 (3.4) | |
| Weight lossa | 29 (3.8) | 1570 (0.6) | |
| Proton pump inhibitor use | 260 (33.9) | 65,881 (26.0) | |
| Bisphosphonate use | 43 (5.6) | 5845 (2.3) | |
| Aspirin use | 174 (22.7) | 34,213 (13.5) | |
| Statin use | 360 (46.9) | 88,485 (34.9) | |
| Calcium channel blocker use | 204 (26.6) | 56,602 (22.3) | |
| Digoxin use | 13 (1.7) | 4723 (1.9) | |
| HbA1c (mmol/mol) |
Mean (SD) Not recorded (%) |
66.9 (24.1) 117 (15.5) |
61.7 (20.4) 34,241 (13.5) |
| Haemoglobin (g/L) |
Mean (SD) Not recorded (%) |
140.1 (14.2) 55 (7.2) |
142.9 (15.2) 30,284 (11.9) |
| Bilirubin (μmol/L) |
Mean (SD) Not recorded (%) |
10.8 (6.0) 45 (5.9) |
10.1 (5.2) 21,486 (8.5) |
| ALT (units/L) |
Mean (SD) Not recorded (%) |
27.4 (15.3) 89 (11.6) |
34.5 (19.3) 34,044 (13.4) |
| Creatinine (μmol/L) |
Mean (SD) Not recorded (%) |
81.2 (22.6) 17 (2.21) |
79.8 (20.7) 9926 (3.9) |
| C-reactive protein (mg/dL) |
Mean (SD) Not recorded (%) |
11.8 (19.6) 451 (58.8) |
10.8 (19.8) 171,022 (67.4) |
| Erythrocyte sedimentation rate (mm/h) |
Mean (SD) Not recorded (%) |
19.2 (19.8) 474 (62.6) |
16.8 (16.8) 176,814 (69.7) |
| Platelets (billion platelets/L) |
Mean (SD) Not recorded (%) |
240.5 (73.3) 55 (7.2) |
255.3 (70.0) 30,675 (12.1) |
| White blood cell count (109/L) |
Mean (SD) Not recorded (%) |
7.8 (2.4) 56 (7.4) |
7.8 (2.2) 30,283 (11.9) |
Candidate predictor variables that had fewer than 10 recorded events were deselected from the modelling due to considerations of model stability and precision. This included cholangitis, pancreatic cyst, coeliac disease, Cushing’s syndrome, Hepatitis C, HIV/AIDs, fever, flatulence, abdominal mass, bowel change GI bleeding, dark urine, vomiting, tiredness, H2 blocker, steatorrhea, itching, dysphagia, appetite loss, abdominal distension. Medication exposure is defined as at least 3 prescriptions within 12 months prior to the prediction date. BMI and blood test values are latest recorded within the 3 years preceding the prediction date. Numbers are n (%) unless otherwise indicated.
aSymptom recorded within 6 months prior to the prediction date.