Table 1 .

Parameters used to estimate the number of patients with AF, number of fatal and non-fatal events, associated costs, and the impact of implementing ABC care pathway

Description	Parameter	Source
Prevalence of AF
Population percentage prevalence of AF—annual data were used in the analysis; selected years are presented here (all years are shown in Supplementary material online)	2020 35–54: 0.35% 55–74: 3.27% 75+: 13.82% 2030 35–54: 0.42% 55–74: 3.76% 75+: 19.51% 2040 35–54: 0.49% 55–74: 4.26% 75+: 23.29%	Derived from Adderley et al.14
Projected UK population—annual data were used in the analysis; selected years are presented here (all years are shown in Supplementary material online)	Thousands of people 2025 35–54: 17 298 55–74: 15 637 75+: 6599 2030 35–54: 17 543 55–74: 16 380 75+: 7309 2035 35–54: 17 814 55–74: 16 435 75+: 7976 2040 35–54: 17 584 55–74: 16 326 75+: 8911	ONS15
Risk of fatal and non-fatal events (1-year probability)
Strokes	0.014	Romiti et al.8 Additional calculations
Major bleeds	0.030
Death from all causes	0.049
Deaths from cardiovascular causes	0.023
Unit costs
Stroke: one-year costs including acute (0–3 months) and post-acute (4–12 months) healthcare in patients with AF	£13 508	Luengo-Fernandez et al.31 PSSRU unit costs19
Major bleed: one-year healthcare costs associated with gastrointestinal bleeds in patients with AF	£4297	Ramagopalan et al.18 PSSRU unit costs19
Impact of implementing the ABC pathway (odds ratio)
Strokes	0.55(95% CI 0.37–0.82)	Romiti et al.8
Major bleeds	0.69(95% CI 0.51–0.94)
Death from all causes	0.42(95% CI 0.31–0.56)
Deaths from cardiovascular causes	0.37(95% CI 0.23–0.58)
CI: confidence interval.