Table 2 .

Estimated impact of ABC management on outcomes and costs for AF patients in 2030 and 2040

	% of AF patients managed on ABC pathway
	20	30	40	50	60	70	80	90	100
2030
Strokes prevented	2758	4137	5516	6895	8274	9653	11 032	12 411	13 790
Cost reduction (£)—strokes	59 908 339	89 862 509	119 816 679	149 770 848	179 725 018	209 679 188	239 633 357	269 587 527	299 541 697
Bleeds prevented	3983	5974	7965	9956	11 948	13 939	15 930	17 921	19 913
Cost reduction (£)—bleeds	27 518 672	41 278 008	55 037 344	68 796 680	82 556 015	96 315 351	110 074 687	123 834 023	137 593 359
Cost reduction (£)—total	87 427 011	131 140 517	174 854 022	218 567 528	262 281 033	305 994 539	349 708 044	393 421 550	437 135 056
Deaths prevented (all cause)	11 945	17 918	23 890	29 863	35 836	41 808	47 781	53 754	59 726
Deaths prevented (CV)	6043	9064	12 086	15 107	18 129	21 150	24 172	27 193	30 214
2040
Strokes prevented	3724	5586	7449	9311	11 173	13 035	14 897	16 759	18 622
Cost reduction (£)—strokes	98 615 026	147 922 539	197 230 052	246 537 565	295 845 078	345 152 591	394 460 104	443 767 617	493 075 130
Bleeds prevented	5378	8067	10 756	13 445	16 134	18 823	21 512	24 201	26 890
Cost reduction (£)—bleeds	45 298 444	67 947 666	90 596 888	113 246 109	135 895 331	158 544 553	181 193 775	203 842 997	226 492 219
Cost reduction (£)—total	143 913 470	215 870 205	287 826 940	359 783 675	431 740 409	503 697 144	575 653 879	647 610 614	719 567 349
Deaths prevented (all cause)	16 131	24 196	32 261	40 326	48 392	56 457	64 522	72 587	80 653
Deaths prevented (CV)	8160	12 240	16 320	20 400	24 481	28 561	32 641	36 721	40 801

CV = cardiovascular