Total power generation |
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According to the National Energy Administration's "Letter on the Proposal for the 2021 Renewable Energy Power Consumption Responsibility Weight and 2022-2030 Expected Targets" (hereinafter referred to as the "Expected Targets"), the electricity consumption target for the whole society in 2030 is set as 11 billion MWh [54]. |
Power generation of other types |
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We set the nuclear power generation accounts for 10% of total generation (the expected target of China Nuclear Society and State Grid Energy Research Institute [55]), which is set at 1.1 billion MWh.We set the annual growth rate of gas-fired power generation as 10% after 2019 [53]. Gas-fired generation accounts for 6% of total generation which equals 0.66 billion MWh in 2030. |
Coal-fired power generation |
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Coal-fired power generation will increase by 6.2% in 2030 from 2019. |
Required ratio in RPS |
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According to the “Expected Goals”, renewable energy accounts for at least 40% of total generation, of which non-hydro renewable energy accounts for at least 25.9% of total generation [54]. |
Benchmark in ETS |
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The benchmarks are set based on the 2019-2020 national carbon market permit allocation scheme [12]. We retain the differences between the various types, and tighten the benchmarks by multiplying them by a certain proportion, such as 70% and 80%. |
Emission factor |
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The emission factor for coal-fired power generation is set as 2.6603 tCO2/MWh. The emission factor for gas-fired power generation is set as 1.6257 tCO2/MWh. |
CCER conversion factor |
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According to the substitutions between renewable energy power generation and coal-fired power generation, we set the conversion factor as 0.8 tCO2/MWh. |
Price of permit in ETS |
P |
The exogenous carbon market price is set as 200 yuan/tCO2, and the equilibrium price of green certificate is set as 160 yuan/MWh. |