Table 2.
Significant predictors of future memory function
| Baseline predictor a | Univariate models b | Basic models c | Multivariable model d |
|---|---|---|---|
| β (95% CI) | β (95% CI) | β (95% CI) | |
| Age | -0.16 (-0.19 – -0.12)*** | -0.17 (-0.20 – -0.13)*** |
-0.14 (-0.18 – -0.10)*** |
| Alcohol consumption e | |||
|
Q1 (≤ 0.23 standard drinks/day) Q2 (0.24–0.56 standard drinks/day) Q3 (0.57–1.01 standard drinks/day) Q4 (≥ 1.02 standard drinks/day) |
Reference 0.12 (0.02–0.21)* 0.15 (0.05–0.25)** 0.14 (0.04–0.23)** |
Reference 0.06 (-0.04–0.17) 0.11 (0.00–0.21)* 0.11 (-0.00–0.22) |
Reference 0.10 (-0.01–0.20) 0.12 (0.00– 0.23)* 0.13 (0.01–0.24)* |
| APOE genotype | |||
|
ɛ3/ɛ3 ɛ2/ɛ2 or ɛ2/ ɛ3 ɛ2/ɛ4 ɛ3/ɛ4 or ɛ4/ɛ4 |
Reference -0.01 (-0.12–0.09) -0.02 (-0.25–0.20) -0.13 (-0.21 – -0.04)** |
Reference 0.03 (-0.08–0.14) 0.02 (-0.22 – 0.25) -0.12 (-0.21 – -0.04)** |
Reference 0.03 (-0.08–0.15) 0.01 (-0.23–0.25) -0.14 (-0.23 – -0.05)** |
| BMI | -0.08 (-0.11 – -0.04)*** | -0.04 (-0.08 – -0.00)* | -0.01 (-0.05–0.03) |
| Diabetes f | -0.36 (-0.51 – -0.21)*** | -0.29 (-0.44 – -0.13)*** | Not included g |
| Education | |||
|
≤8 years 9–12 years >12 years |
Reference 0.25 (0.17–0.33)*** 0.42 (0.33–0.51)*** |
Reference 0.21 (0.12–0.29)*** 0.36 (0.27–0.46)*** |
Reference 0.17 (0.08–0.26)*** 0.32 (0.21–0.42)*** |
| Glucose (plasma) | -0.10 (-0.14 – -0.07)*** | -0.09 (-0.12 – -0.05)*** | Not included g |
| HbA 1c | -0.11 (-0.14 – -0.07)*** | -0.07 (-0.11 – -0.04)*** | -0.08 (-0.12 – -0.04)*** |
| HDL-C | 0.09 (0.06–0.13)*** | 0.06 (0.02–0.11)** | 0.03 (-0.02–0.08) |
| Sex (0 = men, 1 = women) | 0.24 (0.17–0.31)*** | 0.24 (0.17 − 0.32) *** | 0.23 (0.14–0.32)*** |
| Systolic blood pressure | -0.11 (-0.14 – -0.07)*** | -0.04 (-0.08 – -0.00)* | -0.03 (-0.07–0.01) |
| Triglycerides | -0.10 (-0.14 – -0.06)*** | -0.05 (-0.10 – -0.01)* | -0.01 (-0.07–0.04) |
Only predictors that were significant in the basic model are shown in Table 2. The predictors that were non-significant in the basic model are shown in eTable 1 and included: Carotid stenosis, hypertension, LDL-C, physical activity, prevalent or incident stroke and smoking. Predictors in bold represent the significant predictors from the multivariable model
a All continuous variables used as z-scores (i.e., not alcohol, APOE, diabetes, education, hypertension and sex)
b Including only the predictor and time between baseline and follow-up
c Including the predictor adjusted for age, sex, education, time between baseline and follow-up, and prevalent or incident stroke
d One model combining all significant predictors from the basic models, adjusted for age, sex, education, time between baseline and follow-up, prevalent or incident stroke and blood lipid lowering medication
e Alcohol consumption in quartiles with lowest quartile as reference: Q1 ≤ 0.23 standard drinks/day (0–3.37 g/day); Q2 0.24–0.56 standard drinks/day (3.38–7.83 g/day); Q3 0.57–1.01 standard drinks/day (7.84–15.2 g/day); Q4 ≥ 1.02 standard drinks/day, (≥ 15.3 g/day)
f Defined as a diabetes diagnosis entered in the baseline questionnaire or having fasting plasma glucose levels > 6mmol/L at baseline
g To avoid collinearity issues, HbA1c, diabetes, and plasma glucose levels were not entered in the same model (only HbA1c in the multivariable model)
* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001