Abstract
Background and Hypothesis
When occurring in adolescence, psychotic experiences (PE), subclinical psychotic symptoms, can be an early marker of mental illnesses. Studies with high-risk populations for psychosis show that anxiety symptoms often precede the onset of psychosis. Although anxiety symptoms are frequently experienced across the continuum of psychosis, no previous study has analyzed this association using a cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) longitudinally to identify if anxiety can be a predictor of PE over time or vice versa. The aim of the current study was to investigate whether one symptom domain predicts the other over time.
Study Design
2194 children from the Brazilian High-Risk Cohort (BHRC) were evaluated at baseline (T0), and 76.5% completed a 3-year follow-up (T1) interview. Childhood anxiety symptoms and PE were assessed using a standardized self-report questionnaire at both time points. Cross-lagged panel models evaluated time-lagged associations between PE and anxiety longitudinally.
Study Results
Higher levels of anxiety in childhood predicted an increase in PE levels in adolescence. The cross-lagged effect of anxiety scores at T0 on PE scores at T1 was significant (β = .03, SE = 0.01, P ≤ .001) and PE in childhood did not increase levels of anxiety in adolescence, when controlling for sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.
Conclusions
Our findings reinforce that anxiety may represent an early marker of psychosis proneness, not a consequence of already presenting PE, which can help to develop better screening approaches. Therefore, future studies should focus on identifying biological or other clinical markers to increase prediction accuracy.
Keywords: attenuated psychotic symptoms, early diagnosis, psychosis early markers, developmental psychopathology, cross-lagged panel models
Introduction
Psychotic experiences (PE) such as subclinical delusions and/or hallucinations are usually transient in childhood.1 However, cross-sectional studies have shown that during adolescence, up to 80% of subjects with PE also present a comorbid psychiatric disorder,2–5 especially anxiety symptoms.6,7 Longitudinal studies have expanded these findings, revealing that adolescents who experienced PE over 1–2-year follow-ups presented either (1) worsening of previous depression/anxiety symptoms or (2) its persistence even after PE remission.8–11 Furthermore, several prospective cohort studies indicate that juvenile presentation of PE is associated with anxiety disorder as well as psychotic disorders in adulthood.12–14 Understanding the course of anxiety and psychotic symptoms over development can be useful to improve screening assessments of initial mental illness manifestations, in a timely manner as to adopt preventive measures or early treatment.
Studies with high-risk populations for psychosis show that anxiety symptoms often precede the onset of psychosis,15–19 especially if they are persistent during childhood.20–22 Moreover, individuals who develop psychosis are more likely to experience anxiety, with prevalence rates for anxiety disorders in psychosis ranging from 42% to 74%.23,24 Although psychotic symptoms are often experienced with anxiety symptoms across the continuum of psychosis,10,15–17,25 it remains unclear whether one leads to the other throughout development.
Psychotic experiences and anxiety symptoms can be early markers of various psychiatric disorders,17–19,26–28 but they might also influence each other. In addition to sharing common pathways, anxiety symptoms are thought to play a central role in the formation of psychotic symptoms according to cognitive models of psychosis.29 Thus, despite the growing number of longitudinal studies that show an association between PE and anxiety symptoms, some methodological aspects limit our understanding of the association between anxiety and PE. For instance, lack of adequate methods to consider the autocorrelation of repeated measures and to control for potential confounders, such as low socioeconomic status, cognitive impairment, and family history of mental illness,11,30,31 make it difficult to disentangle the contributions of anxiety to PE, and vice versa.
Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) can be useful to investigate the longitudinal association between PE and anxiety since it can estimate to what extent the prior presence of one relates to the other adjusted for (1) autoregressive effects of the same measure over time (eg, childhood anxiety on adolescent anxiety), (2) correlation between both measures, anxiety and PE, at each time point, and (3) potential confounders.32 As such, this study investigated the relationship between anxiety symptoms and PE across childhood and adolescence employing CLPMs. We used data from the Brazilian High-Risk Cohort for Psychiatric Disorders (BHRC), a school-based cohort of young people that completed a follow-up assessment over 3 years.33 The specific aims of the current study were (1) to investigate if there is an association between PE and anxiety over time and (2) whether one symptom domain predicts the other over time.
A longitudinal study in Sweden31 has shown that PE predicts anxiety symptoms three years later in adolescents (mean age of 14 years old at baseline). Analyzing the same age range, a 5-year survey in Japan,11 using multilevel model analysis, revealed that anxiety worsened with PE incidence in adolescents and that PE incidence was associated with increased anxiety symptoms. Morales-Muñoz et al,20 conducted latent class growth analyses for anxiety using data from a cohort starting at 8 years old along three time points (8, 10, and 13 years old), where persistent high levels of anxiety across time points were significantly associated with PE at the age of 24 years.
The results of these studies show that anxiety and PE are associated over time. However, none of them used a CLPM to analyze whether, in a younger age group (6–12 years at baseline), one of the symptoms may precede the other. Accordingly, elucidating if there is an initial symptom, which appears earlier in development and predict the other in adolescence, is of great importance for early prevention and to better understand the transition from PE to mental health issues.
Methods
Study Design and Subjects
Our study used information from two time-point assessments (T0 in 2010/2011 and T1 in 2014/2015) of the BHRC.33 For a detailed description of study procedure, please see Salum et al.33 Briefly, on the registration day, 12 500 parents with children aged between 6 and 12 years, who were enrolled with 57 schools (22 in Porto Alegre and 35 in São Paulo), were asked to participate in a screening interview utilizing the Family History Screen (FHS).34 FHS is a structured interview conducted by lay interviewers in which parents provide information about the presence of lifetime DSM-IV major mental disorder in each of the biological first-degree relatives. A total of 8012 families (9937 eligible children and 45 394 family members) underwent FHS interviews. In 87% of cases, the biological mother was the primary informant. For each potential eligible child, a family load index was calculated, considering the percentage of family members screening positively for the evaluated disorders, adjusted for relatedness. Finally, the cohort was comprised of 2511 individuals, children and adolescents, of which 957 were randomly selected, and 1554 consisted of a selection of children identified as at high risk of mental disorders through the Family History Screen (FHS). Child assent and parental written informed consent were obtained from all research subjects.
We analyzed data from subjects who completed the assessment of PE at baseline and who had an estimated intelligence quotient (IQ) above 70. IQ was estimated using the vocabulary and block design subtests of the Weschler Intelligence Scale for Children, 3rd edition—WISC-III,35 according to the Tellegen and Briggs method36 and Brazilian standards.37 The sample of the present study comprises 2194 individuals at baseline (T0) and 1678 at the follow-up, T1.
Assessments of PE
To assess PE, the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences (CAPE),38 specifically formulated to evaluate the frequency and impact of psychotic subclinical symptoms, was used. The original scale consists of 42 self-report items, distributed across positive, negative, and depressive dimensions. Only the 20 items of positive symptom subscale (CAPE-pos) were applied to students in our cohort. CAPE-pos is reliable among young people (mean age ≤25 years)39 and demonstrated satisfactory factor validity as well as reliability coefficient to assess PE.38,40 Considering the initial age range of our sample (6–12 years-old), the questionnaire was applied by trained psychologists.
At both time points, the frequency of PE was quantified using a four-point Likert scale (0 = never, 1 = sometimes, 2 = often, and 3 = nearly always). In the current study, the sum of the frequencies of all 20 CAPE-pos items was used as a continuous variable, ranging from 0 to 60.
Assessing Anxiety Symptoms
To assess anxiety symptoms, we used the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED), a self-report questionnaire used to measure anxiety in children and adolescents.41–47 The scale consists of 41 items divided into five categories of symptoms: panic/somatic (13 items); generalized anxiety (9 items); separation anxiety (8 items); social phobia (7 items); and school avoidance (4 items). For each item, participants endorsed a 3-point Likert scale (0 = not true or hardly ever true; 1 = sometimes true; 2 = true or often true), which describes how they have been feeling in the past 3 months. Total scores, therefore, ranged from 0 to 82, with higher scores reflecting higher levels of anxiety. The SCARED has been validated to Brazilian Portuguese and showed good reliability as measured by internal consistency and test–retest reliability.48 Birmaher et al,42 identified total scores at 25 or above as the cut-off score warranting further evaluation.
Assessment of Covariates
Demographic Characteristics
Age, sex, city, socioeconomic status, and skin color data were collected. Socioeconomic status (SES) was obtained from a questionnaire on household assets and educational background of the household head. According to Brazil Criterion for Economic Classification,49 (ABEP) scores range from 0 to 46, where greater scores indicate higher socioeconomic class. Self-reported skin color was divided into two groups: White and Non-White. Non-White included people with black skin, mixed-race, Asian, and Indigenous.
General Psychopathology
Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) is an inventory answered by parents, and it allows dimensional measurement of behavioral problems of internalization (withdrawal, anxiety, depression, and somatic complaints) and externalization (aggressiveness and challenging behavior) symptoms in children and adolescents. To assess general psychiatric symptoms, CBCL total score was used, consisting of a sum of 118 items classified as “not true” (0), “partially or sometimes true” (1), or “very true or often true” (2).50
Parental Diagnosis
Main caregiver (biological mother in 95% of cases and biological father in 5%) was assessed for psychopathology at baseline through the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI),51 which investigated anxiety (panic, agoraphobia, social, or generalized anxiety disorder), mood (recurrent depression, bipolar, and unipolar depression), substance use (alcohol dependence or abuse, drug dependence, or abuse), psychotic disorders and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).
Statistical Analysis
We first present descriptive statistics of the research variables at each assessment and the correlation between all variables included in the study. Logistic regression models were employed to investigate predictors of attrition at T1. Then, longitudinal association between PE and anxiety was assessed using CLPMs in Mplus version 8.6.52 CLPMs are used to investigate the interdependence of variables over time. Time-lagged associations between PE (CAPE total score) and anxiety (SCARED scores) was longitudinally examined at T0 and T1. CLPMs allow to estimate the cross-lagged effect that anxiety and PE have over time or, in other words, to what extent the prior scores of one variable relate to subsequent scores of the other variable adjusted by (1) autoregressive effects of the same measure over time (eg, anxiety at T0 on anxiety at T1), (2) correlation between both measures, anxiety, and PE, at each time point, and (3) potential confounders.32 We used the Maximum Likelihood with robust standard errors (MLR) estimator that provides a robust estimator when continuous variables are not normally distributed and allows to handle missing data using all available information even if some data points may be absent, yielding robust standard error estimation.52 We first estimated a baseline model without adjustments. We then estimated an adjusted model including time invariant (gender, site, skin color, parental diagnosis at baseline) and time variant covariates (CBCL scores, ABEP score, and age at each time point). We compared the performance of both models using the Information Criteria Akaike (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and Sample-Size Adjusted BIC (saBIC), where the model with lower indexes indicates a better goodness of fit. Additionally, we adopted a significant level of 5%. Standardized estimates were presented for the CLPMs. Significant standardized estimates between <0.20, 0.20–0.49 and >0.50 were interpreted as representing small, medium, and large effect sizes, respectively.53
For a sensitivity analysis, we tested whether general psychopathology better explains the prediction of PE longitudinally than anxiety alone, thus using general psychopathology (as measured by CBCL) as a predictor, instead of anxiety (measured by SCARED).
Results
Sample Characteristics
Table 1 presents sociodemographic and clinical characteristics in both assessments. Details on current parental diagnosis at baseline are shown in Supplementary table 2. The most prevalent lifetime diagnosis among parents was anxiety disorder (n = 521, 23.8%) followed by mood disorder (n = 435, 19.8%). Baseline characteristics associated with attrition at T1 were female gender (OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04–1.54, P = .019), higher age (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.02–1.13, P = .005), and lower SES scores (OR = 1.03, 1.01–1.05, P = .016). Clinical characteristics (CBCL, PE, anxiety scores, parental diagnosis, and family risk of psychiatric disorders), skin color, and site were not significantly associated with attrition. Supplementary table 3 presents the correlation matrix between all study variables.
Table 1.
Sample Characteristics
| Mean (SD) or n (%) | ||
|---|---|---|
| T0 (n = 2194) | T1 (n = 1678) | |
| Demographics* | ||
| Age (years) | 10.2 (1.91) | 13.44 (1.91) |
| ABEP score | 18.3 (4.51) | 18.44 (4.29) |
| Gender | ||
| Male | 1196 (54.5) | 938 (55.9) |
| Female | 998 (45.5) | 740 (44.1) |
| Selection | ||
| Familiar high-risk | 1346 (61.3) | 1026 (61.1) |
| Random | 848 (38.7) | 652 (38.9) |
| Site | ||
| São Paulo | 1090 (49.7) | 827 (49.3) |
| Porto Alegre | 1104 (50.3) | 851 (50.7) |
| Skin color† | ||
| White | 1331 (60.8) | 1023 (61.1) |
| Non-White | 857 (39.2) | 650 (38.9) |
| Parental diagnosis | ||
| Yes | 654 (29.8) | 517 (30.8) |
| No | 1540 (70.2) | 1161 (69.2) |
| General psychopathology (CBCL) | 26.3 (24.54) | 26.47 (22.92) |
| Psychotic experience (CAPE) | 4.81 (5.45) | 3.15 (4.20) |
| Anxiety symptoms (SCARED) | 24.48 (14.2) | 20.5 (11.61) |
Note: ABEP, The Brazil Criterion for Economic Classification; CAPE, Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences; CBCL, Child Behavior Checklist; SCARED, Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders.
*Only data from subjects with complete assessment of psychotic experiences (CAPE-pos) at T0 were used in this study.
†Skin color | T0 (n = 2188) | T1 (n = 1673).
Psychotic Experience
In our sample, at the baseline (T0), 1634 (74.50%) individuals reported at least one PE, with median of 3 endorsements; and 41.5% endorsed at least one experience as “‘often’” or “‘almost always’.” At the follow-up (T1), 1197 (71.33%) reported at least one PE, with median of 2 endorsements; and 30.20% endorsed at least one experience as “often” or “almost always.” The CAPE total score ranged from 0 to 35 (mean = 4.81, SD = 5.45) at T0 and from 0 to 37 (mean = 3.15, SD = 4.20) at T1 (table 1).
Anxiety Symptoms
The total score for the entire sample ranged from 0 to 82 at T0 (mean = 24.48, SD = 14.20) and from 0 to 81 at T1 (mean = 20.50, SD = 11.61) (table 1). Approximately 43.5% (n = 943) of the sample at T0 and 30% (n = 510) at T1 had total scores at 25 or above.
Cross-lagged Panel Models
As shown in Supplementary figure 1, the non-adjusted model showed that the cross-lagged effect of anxiety at T0 on PE at T1 was small, but significant (β = .04, SE = 0.01, P < .001). The covariance between both measures at each time point was significant, as well as the autoregressive effect of each variable on its own development over time (figure 1). The adjusted model is shown in figure 1 and a complete description of results can be found in table 2. This model presented better goodness of fit (AIC = 52991.156, BIC = 53150.497, saBIC = 53061.537) compared to the model without adjustments (AIC = 53202.718, BIC = 53282.426, and sample-size adjusted BIC = 53237.946).
Fig. 1.
Cross-lagged panel model: interrelationship between anxiety and psychotic experiences over childhood and adolescence. Anxiety symptoms: Anxiety symptoms: anx_t0, anx_t1 = anxiety total score at Time 0 and 1, respectively. Psychotic Experiences: pe_t0, pe_t1 = PE total score at Time 0 and 1, respectively. Standardized estimates are shown, error terms were omitted for visual clarity. ***P value < .001. **P value < .05. The model was adjusted for age, gender, parental diagnosis, site, CBCL scores, ABEP score, and skin color as showed in table 2. Covariance pe_t0 and anx_t0 = 21.10, P < .001, pe_t1 and anx_t1 = 17.10, P < .001. Model Fit information: Number of Free Parameters = 28; Loglikelihood H0 Value = −26467.58; Information Criteria Akaike (AIC) = 52991.16; Bayesian (BIC) = 53150.50, Sample-Size Adjusted BIC = 53282.43. n = 2188. Estimator: MLR.
Table 2.
Standardized Estimates of the Adjusted Cross-lagged Panel Model (n = 2188)
| Standardized Estimate | Standard Error | P values | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome: SCARED T1 | |||
| CAPE T0 | 0.076 | 0.057 | .185 |
| SCARED T0 | 0.224 | 0.022 | <.001 |
| Age T0 | −0.106 | 0.146 | .468 |
| ABEP score T0 | −0.115 | 0.056 | .042 |
| Gender | 2.691 | 0.559 | <.001 |
| Site | 0.479 | 0.574 | .404 |
| Skin color | −0.168 | 0.561 | .764 |
| Parental diagnosis | 1.934 | 0.655 | .003 |
| CBCL T0 | 0.019 | 0.012 | .125 |
| CAPE T0 | 0.076 | 0.057 | .185 |
| SCARED T0 | 0.224 | 0.022 | <.001 |
| Outcome: CAPE T1 | |||
| CAPE T0 | 0.090 | 0.028 | .001 |
| SCARED T0 | 0.034 | 0.008 | <.001 |
| Age T0 | −0.014 | 0.055 | .793 |
| ABEP score T0 | −0.030 | 0.021 | .160 |
| Gender | 0.743 | 0.206 | <.001 |
| Site | 1.130 | 0.206 | <.001 |
| Skin color | −0.004 | 0.216 | .986 |
| Parental diagnosis | −0.078 | 0.234 | .740 |
| CBCL T0 | 0.017 | 0.005 | .001 |
Note: CAPE, Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences; SCARED, Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders; ABEP, Brazil Criterion for Economic Classification; CBCL, Child Behavior Checklist.
In this model, the cross-lagged effect of anxiety scores at T0 on PE scores at T1 remained significant (β = .03, SE = 0.01, P ≤ .001), which means that each standard deviation increase in anxiety scores during childhood (T0) was associated with an increase by 0.03 standard deviations in PE during early adolescence (T1), even after controlling for sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. The cross-lagged effect of PE scores at T0 on anxiety scores at T1 was not significant.
For the sensitivity analysis, the result shows that general psychopathology at T0 also predicts PE at T1; however, in lower magnitude, half as much as anxiety. As shown in Supplementary table 1, the cross-lagged effect of general psychopathology at T0 on PE at T1 was significant (β = .017, SE = 0.005, P = .001).
Discussion
Our study used the CLPM, a relevant analysis for literature, to investigate the direction of the association over time between anxiety and PE. We found a small but statistically significant effect of childhood anxiety symptoms on PE prediction in adolescence and that, surprisingly, PE in childhood did not predict anxiety in adolescence. Furthermore, the present study found that PE and anxiety are associated at each time point, and both represent the best predictor of their subsequent levels over time.
For a sensitivity analysis, we tested whether general psychopathology better explains the prediction of PE longitudinally than anxiety alone, thus using general psychopathology (as measured by the CBCL) as a predictor in the cross-lagged model, instead of anxiety (measured by the SCARED). We aimed to check the specificity of the association and if general psychopathology, also previously associated with PE,54 would account for the result we found with the anxiety measurement. The result showed that general psychopathology at T0 also predicted PE at T1, but its effect was half of that found for anxiety symptoms, suggesting a stronger sign of anxiety specifically. We cannot rule out that other specific psychopathological domains also predict PE, and testing each possibility is beyond our current scope. Interestingly, anxiety is a general response to distress and even other specific domains of psychopathology-linked PE may be accompanied by higher levels of anxiety. In addition, the result highlights the relevance of anxiety symptoms as an early marker of developing PE in adolescence.
We found that anxiety at T0 predicts PE at T1; however, it should be emphasized that the strongest predictor of PE at follow-up was PE at baseline; it also applies to anxiety, the best predictor of anxiety at T1 was anxiety at T0, which is consistent with previous study showing that the best predictor of a specific psychopathology on follow-up is the same psychopathology at baseline.31
Our finding that anxiety predicts psychosis is in line with previous literature where anxiety has been over-reported by children who later develop psychosis.21,22 This prediction can be understood from several points of view. The neurophysiology of anxiety and psychosis symptoms share common pathways. Those experiencing PE likely reflect a heightened tendency to avoid aversive or threatening stimuli comparable to what occurs in anxiety disorders.55 Moreover, a cross-sectional study has shown that schizophrenia patients are more propense to experience anxiety. This propensity is considered a vulnerability that may play a role in developing psychotic disorders.56
Giocondo et al57 study showed that dimensional measurement of PE, but not categorical, was associated with anxiety disorders in a 3-year follow-up of the same cohort. The method used for the analysis—independent linear/logistic regression models—do not control for auto-regressive effects in longitudinal designs, being unable to clarify the directionality of the results. In addition, the use of a categorical approach to anxiety reduces the power to identify milder relationship between anxiety and PE, as measured at the symptom level. In this sense, the current study aimed specifically to clarify the direction of the relationship between PE and anxiety symptoms over time, providing more insights about the pressing issue related to prediction, a crucial step to preventive protocols.
Our results contrast with those from Isaksson et al31 study, which shows that PE predicts anxiety and depression symptoms three years later, even adjusting for psychiatric symptoms at baseline. However, the age group studied was 14 to 17 years old (older than our cohort). The self-report questionnaire of children as young as 8 years old might lead to an overestimation of PE report compared to an interview-based survey and the sensitivity of the frequency self-report of PE is low at younger ages.58 Even so, we were able to replicate previously stablished associations between PE and anxiety on both time points as well as the autoregressive effect of each variable on its own development over time.
The findings of this study should be interpreted in the light of some limitations. First of all, the cohort follow-up for 3 years limits our ability to comment whether PE in adolescence predicts psychiatric illness in adulthood. Our latest assessment does not cover the entire age range of psychiatric disorder onset in adulthood. Secondly, besides CLPM can be a robust data analysis method, the presence of unmeasured confounding factors, such as trauma and substance use (cannabis), is always possible and could undermine the estimates presented in this study. Thirdly, given that the PE score is an asymmetric measure, skewed towards lower scores, for statistical analysis we used the Maximum Likelihood with robust standard errors (MLR) estimator that provides a reliable estimate in cases where continuous variables deviate from normal distribution. Furthermore, the occurrence of PE in our study aligns with prior research indicating a high prevalence of low-frequency PE, with a notable decrease in prevalence rates as the frequency increases.27,59–62 Finally, the effect of anxiety at T0 on PE at T1 is significant, but of small effect-size, which is not surprising, given that, despite of the high family risk criteria for the cohort, 74% of the sample did not have any psychiatric disorder,33 depicting lower levels of psychopathology among these children. Moreover, many other variables may be involved in the PE formation process, such as childhood trauma, substance use, among others.10,63–65
Strengths of our study include the contribution to literature by exploring the association of anxiety and PE using CLPMs, which is the ideal method to analyze longitudinally both variables and estimate the directional effects that one variable has on another. In addition, CLPM uses a robust estimator that allows the use of maximum available information, so there was minimal data loss. Considering a longitudinal study, we captured information from 2194 individuals without matching controls and 2188 individuals with controls due to the limitation of skin color data. To our knowledge, no previous study has shown this association using the same method. Moreover, our study analyzed data from a longitudinal high-risk cohort, carefully interviewed by trained psychologists. We used standardized scales to assess anxiety symptoms and PE, addressing concerns regarding the reliability of children’s self-report to PE.
Considering that all of the studies that have investigated the link between anxiety and PE have adopted cross-sectional designs or short-term longitudinal follow-up, future studies would benefit from using long-term longitudinal designs to examine, through CLPMs, the temporal nature of the relationships among childhood anxiety symptoms, PE during adolescence, and development of psychiatric illness in adulthood.
Anxiety has been identified as part of the initial prodrome in psychosis66 and a strong predictor of both development and persistence of paranoid thinking.18 Beyond that, prospective studies with high-risk populations during teenage years have shown that anxiety predicts, with some level of accuracy, psychotic disorders before their onsets.15–19,21,22 The present study replicates this finding longitudinally, with children aged from 6 to 12 years old whose anxiety increases the development of PE 3 years later and draws attention to early recognition and interventions.
Supplementary Material
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the National Institute of Developmental Psychiatry (INPD) with grants from Brazilian government agencies FAPESP.
Contributor Information
Viviane Machado, Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Laboratory in Clinical Neuroscience (LiNC), Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Lais Fonseca, Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Laboratory in Clinical Neuroscience (LiNC), Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Matheus Ghossain Barbosa, Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Rodrigo A Bressan, Department of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Laboratory in Clinical Neuroscience (LiNC), Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Psychiatry, Schizophrenia Program (PROESQ), Federal University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Pedro Pan, Department of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Laboratory in Clinical Neuroscience (LiNC), Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Luis Augusto Rohde, National Institute of Developmental Psychiatry for Children and Adolescents (INCT-CNPq), São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Psychiatry, Attention Deficit and Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) Outpatient and Developmental Psychiatry Programs, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil; Medical Council, UniEduK, São Paulo, Brazil.
Euripedes Constantino Miguel, Department and Institute of Psychiatry (IPQ), University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Giovanni A Salum, National Institute of Developmental Psychiatry for Children and Adolescents (INCT-CNPq), São Paulo, Brazil; Child Mind Institute, New York, USA.
Carolina Ziebold, Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Ary Gadelha, Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; National Institute of Developmental Psychiatry for Children and Adolescents (INCT-CNPq), São Paulo, Brazil.
Conflict of Interest
Luis Augusto Rohde has received grant or research support from, served as a consultant to, and served on the speakers’ bureau of Abbott, Aché, Bial, Medice, Novartis/Sandoz, Pfizer/Upjohn, and Shire/Takeda in the last 3 years. The ADHD and Juvenile Bipolar Disorder Outpatient Programs chaired by Dr Rohde have received unrestricted educational and research support from the following pharmaceutical companies in the last 3 years: Novartis/Sandoz and Shire/Takeda. Dr Rohde has received authorship royalties from Oxford Press and ArtMed. The remaining authors report no conflicts of interest.
Funding
This work was supported by the National Institute of Developmental Psychiatry (INPD) with grants from Brazilian government agencies Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) (grant numbers 2008/57896-9, 2014/50917-0) and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) (grant numbers 573974/2008-0, 465550/2014-2).
References
- 1.van Os J, Verdoux H, Maurice-Tison S, et al. Self-reported psychosis-like symptoms and the continuum of psychosis. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 1999;34(9):459–463. doi: 10.1007/s001270050220 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 2.van Os J, Hanssen M, Bijl RV, Ravelli A.. Strauss (1969) revisited: a psychosis continuum in the general population? Schizophr Res. 2000;29(45):1–2. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 3.Rössler W, Hengartner MP, Ajdacic-Gross V, Haker H, Gamma A, Angst J.. Sub-clinical psychosis symptoms in young adults are risk factors for subsequent common mental disorders. Schizophr Res. 2011;131(1–3):18–23. doi: 10.1016/j.schres.2011.06.019 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 4.Kelleher I, Cederlöf M, Lichtenstein P.. Psychotic experiences as a predictor of the natural course of suicidal ideation: a Swedish cohort study. World Psychiatry. 2014;13(2):184–188. doi: 10.1002/wps.20131 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 5.Cederlöf M, Kuja-Halkola R, Larsson H, et al. A longitudinal study of adolescent psychotic experiences and later development of substance use disorder and suicidal behavior. Schizophr Res. 2017;181:13–16. doi: 10.1016/j.schres.2016.08.029 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 6.Nishida A, Tanii H, Nishimura Y, et al. Associations between psychotic-like experiences and mental health status and other psychopathologies among Japanese early teens. Schizophr Res. 2008;99(1–3):125–133. doi: 10.1016/j.schres.2007.11.038 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 7.Varghese D, Scott J, Welham J, et al. Psychotic-like experiences in major depression and anxiety disorders: a population-based survey in young adults. Schizophr Bull. 2011;37(2):389–393. doi: 10.1093/schbul/sbp083 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 8.Downs JM, Cullen AE, Barragan M, Laurens KR.. Persisting psychotic-like experiences are associated with both externalising and internalising psychopathology in a longitudinal general population child cohort. Schizophr Res. 2013;144(1–3):99–104. doi: 10.1016/j.schres.2012.12.009 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 9.Wigman JTW, Van Winkel R, Raaijmakers QAW, et al. Evidence for a persistent, environment-dependent and deteriorating subtype of subclinical psychotic experiences: a 6-year longitudinal general population study. Psychol Med. 2011;41(11):2317–2329. doi: 10.1017/S0033291711000304 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 10.MacKie CJ, Castellanos-Ryan N, Conrod PJ.. Developmental trajectories of psychotic-like experiences across adolescence: Impact of victimization and substance use. Psychol Med. 2011;41(1):47–58. doi: 10.1017/S0033291710000449 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 11.Yamasaki S, Usami S, Sasaki R, et al. The association between changes in depression/anxiety and trajectories of psychotic-like experiences over a year in adolescence. Schizophr Res. 2018;195:149–153. doi: 10.1016/j.schres.2017.10.019 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 12.Dhossche D, Ferdinand R, Van der Ende J, Hofstra MB, Verhulst F.. Diagnostic outcome of self-reported hallucinations in a community sample of adolescents. Psychol Med. 2002;32(4):619–627. doi: 10.1017/S003329170200555X [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 13.Welham J, Scott J, Williams G, et al. Emotional and behavioural antecedents of young adults who screen positive for non-affective psychosis: a 21-year birth cohort study. Psychol Med. 2009;39(4):625–634. doi: 10.1017/S0033291708003760 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 14.Poulton R, Caspi A, Moffitt TE, Cannon M, Murray R, Harrington H.. Children’s self-reported psychotic symptoms and adult schizophreniform disorder: a 15-year longitudinal study. Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2000;57(11):1053–1058. doi: 10.1001/archpsyc.57.11.1053 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 15.Meyer SE, Bearden CE, Lux SR, et al. The Psychosis Prodrome in Adolescent Patients Viewed Through the Lens of DSM-IV. J Child Adolesc Psychopharmacol. 2005;15(3):434–451. doi:10.1089/cap.2005.15.434 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 16.Johns LC, Cannon M, Singleton N, et al. Prevalence and correlates of self-reported psychotic symptoms in the British population. Br J Psychiatry. 2004;185:298–305. doi: 10.1192/bjp.185.4.298 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 17.Johnstone EVEC, Ebmeier KP, Miller P, Owens DGC, Lawrie SM.. Predicting schizophrenia: findings from the Edinburgh High-Risk Study. Br J Psychiatry. 2005;186(Jan):18–25. doi: 10.1192/bjp.186.1.18 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 18.Freeman D, Stahl D, Mcmanus S, Wiles N, Bebbington P.. Insomnia, worry, anxiety and depression as predictors of the occurrence and persistence of paranoid thinking. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2012;47(8):1195–1203. doi: 10.1007/s00127-011-0433-1 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 19.Freeman D, Garety PA.. Connecting neurosis and psychosis: the direct influence of emotion on delusions and hallucinations. Behav Res Ther. 2003;41(8):923–947. doi: 10.1016/S0005-7967(02)00104-3 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 20.Morales-Muñoz I, Palmer ER, Marwaha S, Mallikarjun PK, Upthegrove R.. Persistent childhood and adolescent anxiety and risk for psychosis: a longitudinal birth cohort study. Biol Psychiatry. 2022;92:8. doi: 10.1016/j.biopsych.2021.12.003 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 21.Jones P, Murray R, Rodgers B, Marmot M.. Child developmental risk factors for adult schizophrenia in the British 1946 birth cohort. Lancet. 1994;344(8934):1398–1402. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(94)90569-X [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 22.Cannon M, Caspi A, Moffitt TE, et al. Evidence for early-childhood, pan-developmental impairment specific to schizophreniform disorder: results from a longitudinal birth cohort. Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2002;59(5):449–456. doi: 10.1001/archpsyc.59.5.449 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 23.Ciapparelli A, Paggini R, Marazziti D, et al. Comorbidity with axis I anxiety disorders in remitted psychotic patients 1 year after hospitalization. CNS Spectr. 2007;12(12):913–919. doi: 10.1017/S1092852900015704 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 24.Bosanac P, Mancuso SG, Castle DJ.. Anxiety symptoms in psychotic disorders: results from the second Australian national mental health survey. Clin Schizophr Relat Psychoses. 2016;10(2):93–100. doi: 10.3371/1935-1232-10.2.93 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 25.Freeman D, Gittins M, Pugh K, Antley A, Slater M, Dunn G.. What makes one person paranoid and another person anxious? The differential prediction of social anxiety and persecutory ideation in an experimental situation. Psychol Med. 2008;38(8):1121–1132. doi: 10.1017/S0033291708003589 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 26.Yung AR, Phillips LJ, Yuen HP, et al. Psychosis prediction: 12-month follow up of a high-risk (“prodromal”) group. Schizophr Res. 2003;60:21–32. doi: 10.1016/S0920-9964(02)00167-6 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 27.Yung AR, Buckby JA, Cotton SM, et al. Psychotic-like experiences in nonpsychotic help-seekers: associations with distress, depression, and disability. Schizophr Bull. 2006;32(2):352–359. doi: 10.1093/schbul/sbj018 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 28.Fisher HL, Caspi A, Poulton R, et al. Specificity of childhood psychotic symptoms for predicting schizophrenia by 38 years of age: a birth cohort study. Psychol Med. 2013;43(10):2077–2086. doi: 10.1017/S0033291712003091 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 29.Freeman D, Garety PA, Kuipers E, Fowler D, Bebbington PE.. A cognitive model of persecutory delusions. British JClinical Psychol. 2002:331–347. [DOI] [PubMed]
- 30.Hanssen M, Krabbendam L, Vollema M, Delespaul P, Van Os J.. Evidence for instrument and family-specific variation of subclinical psychosis dimensions in the general population. J Abnorm Psychol. 2006;115(1):5–14. doi: 10.1037/0021-843X.115.1.5 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 31.Isaksson J, Vadlin S, Olofsdotter S, Åslund C, Nilsson KW.. Psychotic-like experiences during early adolescence predict symptoms of depression, anxiety, and conduct problems three years later: a community-based study. Schizophr Res. 2020;215:190–196. doi: 10.1016/j.schres.2019.10.033 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 32.Zyphur MJ, Allison PD, Tay L, et al. From data to causes I: building a general Cross-Lagged Panel Model (GCLM). Organ Res Methods. 2020;23(4):651–687. doi: 10.1177/1094428119847278 [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- 33.Salum GA, Gadelha A, Pan PM, et al. High risk cohort study for psychiatric disorders in childhood: rationale, design, methods and preliminary results. Int J Methods Psychiatr Res. 2015;24(1):58–73. doi: 10.1002/mpr.1459 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 34.Weissman M, Wickramaratne P, Adams P, Wolk S, Verdeli H, Olfson M.. Brief screening for family psychiatric history: the family history screen. Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2000;57(7):675–682. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 35.Wechsler D. Wechsler Preschool and Primay Scale of Intelligence—Third Edition (WPPSI-III) Technical and Interpretive Manual. San Antonio, TX: The Psychological Corporation; 2002. [Google Scholar]
- 36.Tellegen A, Briggs PF.. Old wine in new skins: grouping Wechsler subtests into new scales. J Consult Psychol. 1967;31(5):499–506. doi: 10.1037/h0024963 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 37.Figueiredo VLM, Pinheiro S, Nascimento ED.. Teste de inteligência WISC-III adaptando para a população brasileira. Psicologia Escolar e Educacional (Impresso). 1998;2(2):101–107. doi: 10.1590/S1413-85571998000200004 [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- 38.Konings M, Bak M, Hanssen M, Van Os J, Krabbendam L.. Validity and reliability of the CAPE: a self-report instrument for the measurement of psychotic experiences in the general population. Acta Psychiatr Scand. 2006;114(1):55–61. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.2005.00741.x [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 39.Mark W, Toulopoulou T.. Psychometric properties of “community assessment of psychic experiences”: review and meta-analyses. Schizophr Bull. 2016;42(1):34–44. doi: 10.1093/schbul/sbv088 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 40.Ivanova MY, Achenbach TM, Dumenci L, et al. Testing the 8-syndrome structure of the child behavior checklist in 30 societies. J Clin Child Adolesc Psychol. 2007;36(3):405–417. doi: 10.1080/15374410701444363 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 41.Behrens B, Swetlitz C, Pine DS, Pagliaccio D.. The Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED): informant discrepancy, measurement invariance, and test–retest reliability. Child Psychiatry Hum Dev. 2019;50(3):473–482. doi: 10.1007/s10578-018-0854-0 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 42.Birmaher B, Brent DA, Chiappetta L, Bridge J, Monga S, Baugher M.. Psychometric properties of the screen for child anxiety related emotional disorders (SCARED): a replication study. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 1999;38(10):1230–1236. doi: 10.1097/00004583-199910000-00011 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 43.Muris P, Merckelbach H, Mayer B, et al. The screen for child anxiety related emotional disorders and its relationship to traditional childhood anxiety measures. J Behav Ther Exp Psychiatry. 1998;29:327–339. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 44.Essau CA, Muris P, Ederer EM.. Reliability and validity of the Spence Children’s Anxiety Scale and the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders in German children. J Behav Ther Exp Psychiatry. 2002;33(1):1–18. doi: 10.1016/S0005-7916(02)00005-8 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 45.Muris P, Merckelbach H, Van Brakel A, Mayer B.. The revised version of the screen for child anxiety related emotional disorders (SCARED-R): further evidence for its reliability and validity. Anxiety Stress Coping. 1999;12(4):411–425. doi: 10.1080/10615809908249319 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 46.Haley T, Puskar K, Terhorst L.. Psychometric properties of the screen for child anxiety related emotional disorders in a rural high school population. J Child Adolesc Psychiatr Nurs. 2011;24(1):23–32. doi: 10.1111/j.1744-6171.2010.00264.x [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 47.Boyd RC, Ginsburg GS, Lambert SF, Cooley MR, Campbell KDM.. Screen for child anxiety related emotional disorders (SCARED): psychometric properties in an African-American parochial high school sample. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2003;42(10):1188–1196. doi: 10.1097/00004583-200310000-00009 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 48.Isolan L, Salum GA, Osowski AT, Amaro E, Manfro GG.. Psychometric properties of the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED) in Brazilian children and adolescents. J Anxiety Disord. 2011;25(5):741–748. doi: 10.1016/j.janxdis.2011.03.015 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 49.ABEP. Critério Padrão de Classificação Econômica Brasil. São Paulo/SP/Brazil: Associação Brasiliera de Empresas de Pesquisa (ABEP); 2010:1–3. [Google Scholar]
- 50.Bordin IA, Rocha MM, Paula CS, et al. Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL),Youth Self-Report (YSR) and Teacher’s Report Form(TRF): an overview of the development of the original and Brazilian versions. Cad Saude Publica. 2013;29:13–28. doi: 10.1590/s0102-311x2013000100004 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 51.Amorim P. Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI): validação de entrevista breve para diagnóstico de transtornos mentais. Rev Bras Psiquiatr. 2000;22(3):106–115. doi: 10.1590/s1516-44462000000300003 [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- 52.Muthén LK, Muthen BO. (1998–2017). Mplus User’s Guide. Eighth Edition. Los Angeles, CA: Muthén & Muthén. [Google Scholar]
- 53.Fey CF, Hu T, Delios A.. The measurement and communication of effect sizes in management research. Manag Organ Rev. 2023;19(1):176–197. doi: 10.1017/mor.2022.2 [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- 54.Barnett JH, McDougall F, Xu MK, Croudace TJ, Richards M, Jones PB.. Childhood cognitive function and adult psychopathology: associations with psychotic and non-psychotic symptoms in the general population. Br J Psychiatry. 2012;201(2):124–130. doi: 10.1192/bjp.bp.111.102053 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 55.Zinbarg RE, Yoon KL.. RST and clinical disorders: anxiety and depression. In: Corr PJ, ed.. The Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory of Personality. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2008:360–397. doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511819384.013 [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- 56.Calvo EM, Ered A, Maxwell SD, Ellman LM.. Behavioural inhibition system sensitivity is no longer associated with psychotic-like experiences after controlling for depression and anxiety symptoms. Early Interv Psychiatry. 2021;15(5):1217–1223. doi: 10.1111/eip.13067 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 57.Giocondo JG, Salum GA, Gadelha A, et al. Psychotic-like experiences and common mental disorders in childhood and adolescence: bidirectional and transdiagnostic associations in a longitudinal community-based study. Schizophr Bull Open. 2021;2(1):1–9. doi: 10.1093/schizbullopen/sgab028 [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- 58.Sullivan SA, Kounali D, Cannon M, et al. A population-based cohort study examining the incidence and impact of psychotic experiences from childhood to adulthood, and prediction of psychotic disorder. Am J Psychiatry. 2020;177(4):308–317. doi: 10.1176/appi.ajp.2019.19060654 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 59.Armando M, Nelson B, Yung AR, et al. Psychotic experience subtypes, poor mental health status and help-seeking behaviour in a community sample of young adults. Early Interv Psychiatry. 2011;6(3):300–308. doi: 10.1111/j.1751-7893.2011.00303.x [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 60.Armando M, Nelson B, Yung AR, et al. Psychotic-like experiences and correlation with distress and depressive symptoms in a community sample of adolescents and young adults. Schizophr Res. 2010;119(1–3):258–265. doi: 10.1016/j.schres.2010.03.001 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 61.Barragan M, Laurens KR, Navarro JB, Obiols JE.. Psychotic-like experiences and depressive symptoms in a community sample of adolescents. Eur Psychiatry. 2011;26(6):396–401. doi: 10.1016/j.eurpsy.2010.12.007 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 62.Wigman JTW, Vollebergh WAM, Os JV.. The structure of the extended psychosis phenotype in early adolescence—a cross-sample replication. Schizophr Bulletin. 2011;37(4):850–860. doi: 10.1093/schbul/sbp154 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 63.Kelleher I, Keeley H, Corcoran P, et al. Childhood trauma and psychosis in a prospective cohort study: cause, effect, and directionality. Am J Psychiatry. 2013;170(7):734–741. doi: 10.1176/appi.ajp.2012.12091169 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 64.Radhakrishnan R, Pries LK, Erzin G, et al. Bidirectional relationships between cannabis use, anxiety and depressive symptoms in the mediation of the association with psychotic experience: further support for an affective pathway to psychosis. Psychol Med. 2022;53:7. doi: 10.1017/s0033291722002756 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 65.Wright AC, Cather C, Farabaugh A, et al. Relationship between cannabis use and psychotic experiences in college students. Schizophr Res. 2021;231:198–204. doi: 10.1016/j.schres.2021.04.004 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 66.Yung AR, McGorry PD.. The initial prodrome in psychosis: descriptive and qualitative aspects. Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 1996;30(5):587–599. doi: 10.3109/00048679609062654 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
Associated Data
This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

