Table 5.
Prognostic value of each scoring model on day-1, day-3 and day-(1 + 3) in HBV-ACLF patients.
| Model | Time | Training set | Validation set | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| day mortality AUC (95%CI) | P | 90-day mortality AUC (95%CI) | P | 28-day mortality AUC (95%CI) | P | 90-day mortality AUC (95%CI) | P | ||
| DSM-ACLF | Day-1 | 0.879(0.837–0.922) | 0.857(0.814–0.900) | 0.805(0.729–0.881) | 0.799(0.729–0.870) | ||||
| COSH-ACLF IIs | 0.857(0.814–0.901) | 0.141 | 0.818(0.771–0.864) | 0.018 | 0.762(0.680–0.844) | 0.146 | 0.789(0.717–0.860) | 0.714 | |
| COSSH-ACLFs | 0.825(0.775–0.875) | 0.009 | 0.811(0.763–0.859) | 0.005 | 0.781(0.701–0.860) | 0.432 | 0.783(0.711–0.856) | 0.556 | |
| CLIF-C ACLFs | 0.805(0.752–0.859) | 0.001 | 0.760(0.706–0.814) | 0.001 | 0.683(0.585–0.780) | 0.002 | 0.724(0.642–0.806) | 0.051 | |
| MELD | 0.703(0.634–0.772) | 0.001 | 0.712(0.653–0.771) | 0.001 | 0.629(0.528–0.730) | 0.001 | 0.629(0.537–0.720) | 0.001 | |
| MELD-Na | 0.703(0.635–0.770) | 0.001 | 0.706(0.647–0.765) | 0.001 | 0.609(0.507–0.711) | 0.001 | 0.621(0.530–0.712) | 0.001 | |
| DSM-ACLF | Day-3 | 0.901(0.871–0.944) | 0.889(0.853–0.924) | 0.861(0.794–0.928) | 0.850(0.790–0.911) | ||||
| COSH-ACLF IIs | 0.882(0.841–0.924) | 0.095 | 0.836(0.791–0.880) | 0.004 | 0.831(0.762–0.901) | 0.234 | 0.870(0.814–0.925) | 0.361 | |
| COSSH-ACLFs | 0.863(0.819–0.906) | 0.011 | 0.832(0.789–0.875) | 0.001 | 0.881(0.824–0.939) | 0.368 | 0.894(0.845–0.943) | 0.035 | |
| CLIF-C ACLFs | 0.838(0.785–0.891) | 0.001 | 0.766(0.711–0.821) | 0.001 | 0.765(0.675–0.856) | 0.003 | 0.773(0.697–0.849) | 0.013 | |
| MELD | 0.782(0.722–0.842) | 0.001 | 0.762(0.708–0.815) | 0.001 | 0.758(0.674–0.841) | 0.025 | 0.776(0.701–0.850) | 0.001 | |
| MELD-Na | 0.756(0.692–0.820) | 0.001 | 0.731(0.674–0.789) | 0.001 | 0.750(0.668–0.833) | 0.021 | 0.781(0.709–0.854) | 0.001 | |
| DSM-ACLF | Day-(1 + 3) | 0.833(0.779–0.887) | 0.890(0.854–0.926) | 0.800(0.715–0.886) | 0.859(0.799–0.919) | ||||
| COSH-ACLF IIs | 0.886(0.846–0.926) | 0.009 | 0.839(0.795–0.883) | 0.004 | 0.816(0.742–0.889) | 0.701 | 0.850(0.789–0.910) | 0.713 | |
| COSSH-ACLFs | 0.868(0.825–0.912) | 0.084 | 0.843(0.801–0.885) | 0.002 | 0.864(0.801–0.928) | 0.085 | 0.875(0.820–0.930) | 0.456 | |
| CLIF-C ACLFs | 0.835(0.782–0.887) | 0.947 | 0.774(0.720–0.828) | 0.001 | 0.738(0.643–0.834) | 0.185 | 0.763(0.685–0.841) | 0.008 | |
| MELD | 0.768(0.706–0.829) | 0.062 | 0.758(0.704–0.812) | 0.001 | 0.724(0.633–0.815) | 0.195 | 0.733(0.652–0.815) | 0.001 | |
| MELD-Na | 0.756(0.693–0.819) | 0.033 | 0.740(0.684–0.796) | 0.001 | 0.706(0.613–0.799) | 0.122 | 0.734(0.652–0.815) | 0.003 | |
DSM-ACLF is the prognostic scoring model that we built based on dynamic data; AUC, area under curve. ACLF, acute-on-chronic liver failure; COSSH-ACLFs, COSSH-ACLF score; COSH-ACLF-IIs, COSSH-ACLF II score; CLIF-C ACLFs, CLIF Consortium ACLF score. MELD, Model for end-stage liver disease.
P value for comparisons between the AUC of DSM-ACLF and another model.
Significant values are in bold.