Table 3.
Estimated 2019 asthma symptom prevalence and trend, for age 6–7, from prediction method with mixed-effect models with random intercepts for country and centre. Centres with time trends and risk factor data available, with and without risk factors included (n = 88)
| Strata for predictions | Number of centres | Without risk factors |
With early-life risk factorsa (adjustment and interaction with time trend) |
With current risk factorsb (adjustment and interaction with time trend) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percentage point change per decade (95% CI) | 2019 prevalence (95% CI) | Percentage point change per decade (95% CI) | 2019 prevalence (95% CI) | Percentage point change per decade (95% CI) | 2019 prevalence (95% CI) | ||
| Models with interaction between country income group and time, also adjusted for region | |||||||
| Overall | 41 | 0.80 (−1.67, 3.28) | 11.83 (7.01, 16.66) | 0.88 (−0.67, 2.42) | 11.91 (8.90, 14.93) | 0.71 (−2.42, 3.84) | 11.65 (5.61, 17.69) |
| Low-income | 7 | −0.98 (−3.17, 1.20) | 2.01 (−2.74, 6.77)c | −0.51 (−2.66, 1.65) | 3.09 (−1.03, 7.20)c | −1.07 (−6.49, 4.35) | 1.78 (−10.09, 13.65)c |
| Lower-middle-income | 5 | 3.07 (−15.95, 22.09) | 14.23 (−23.16, 51.62)c | 3.77 (−8.34, 15.88) | 15.57 (−8.24, 39.38)c | 2.32 (−19.93, 24.57) | 12.61 (−29.85, 55.06)c |
| Upper-middle-income | 13 | 1.45 (−0.26, 3.15) | 12.45 (9.27, 15.62) | 1.30 (−0.89, 3.49) | 12.05 (8.02, 16.09) | 1.60 (−1.09, 4.29) | 12.90 (7.77, 18.03) |
| High-income | 16 | 0.35 (−1.13, 1.83) | 14.88 (12.08, 17.68) | 0.23 (−1.36, 1.83) | 14.52 (11.40, 17.63) | 0.26 (−1.69, 2.21) | 14.66 (10.80, 18.52) |
| Models with interaction between region and time, also adjusted for country income group | |||||||
| Overall | 41 | 1.03 (−4.09, 6.14) | 12.22 (0.38, 24.06) | 0.83 (−5.32, 6.98) | 11.77 (−2.50, 26.04) | 0.98 (−1.56, 3.51) | 12.10 (7.15, 17.05) |
| Africa and Eastern Mediterranean | 5 | 4.10 (−37.29, 45.49) | 14.95 (−81.43, 111.34)c | 4.62 (−45.08, 54.32) | 16.07 (−99.87, 132.00)c | 3.64 (−14.56, 21.85) | 13.83 (−22.15, 49.80)c |
| America | 7 | 1.79 (−0.96, 4.55) | 15.03 (10.51, 19.55) | 1.64 (−1.69, 4.96) | 14.66 (9.29, 20.03) | 1.41 (−2.85, 5.66) | 14.21 (7.11, 21.32) |
| Europe | 13 | 1.11 (−0.26, 2.49) | 12.38 (9.69, 15.07) | 1.04 (−0.84, 2.93) | 12.17 (8.44, 15.91) | 1.59 (−0.33, 3.52) | 13.41 (9.58, 17.23) |
| South-East Asia and Western Pacific | 16 | −0.34 (−1.77, 1.09) | 10.01 (7.25, 12.76) | −0.89 (−2.68, 0.91) | 8.83 (5.25, 12.42) | −0.54 (−2.13, 1.04) | 9.56 (6.46, 12.67) |
a
Early-life factors (in first year): paracetamol, antibiotics, breastfed ever, cat contact, farm animal contact.
b
Current risk factors (in past 12 months): paracetamol, truck traffic, fast food, maternal smoking, paternal smoking, and television viewing.
c
Confidence intervals outside the bounds of 0–100% points for prevalence. This is due to the linear representation of the outcome; CI=Confidence interval calculated using bootstrapping with 10,000 replicates.