Figure 4.

Changes in infant mortality and prosperity as important drivers of the fertility decline seen during the demographic transition. Linear correlations exist between the incidence of infant mortality and TFR; the lower the mortality, the lower the TFR. Exemplars are (A) Latin America and the Caribbean, (B) India, and (C) Bangladesh. This is even true in countries like (D) the UK, (E) Canada, and (F) Australia where the demographic transition was already well established by 1960. In these countries, the rate of TFR decline began to lessen as sub-replacement values were reached and infant mortality had declined to around 15 deaths per 1000 live births (arrowed). The decline in infant mortality is, in turn, highly dependent on an increase in GDP. Just a small increase in the latter precipitates a marked reduction in mortality rates as exemplified by (H) Bangladesh, (I) India, and (J) Canada. Source: World Bank Open data (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN and https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).