Fig. 2.

Lymphocytes have predictive value for upgrade. A. ADH synchronous with HG carcinoma (Ca) has higher stromal lymphocytes than pure ADH or ADH with LG carcinoma (note log scale). The lymphocyte counts were also compared to previously published DCIS cases [31]. P-values from negative binomial model. Internal box-plot represents median and quartiles; circles are individual cases. B. B3 lesions on biopsy (ADH, papillary and FEA/Radial scar) have more lymphocytes than benign ductal lesions, and this is further elevated in the context of upgrade (no benign lesions upgraded). C. ROC curve of model to predict upgrade with age (non-linear), type of lesion and percentage lymphocytes as a continuous variable. D. Box plot of predicted probabilities of non-upgrade and upgrade (Brier score = 0.145) using the fitted logistic regression model. This shows the difference in predictions between the outcomes. A better discriminating model will show less overlap between those with and those without the outcome. The dashed line indicates a probability threshold corresponding to a 10% false negative rate