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. 2024 Jul 3;631(8020):386–392. doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-07626-3

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© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Extended Data Fig. 5 — Testing model performance using replicated simulations. (a) Simulated the total epidemic (black dots), biased down-sampled data as per true proportion per province (red dots) (“Biased Down-sample” in c and d), model fit to down-sampled data (red line), removing the sampling probability the model recapturing the true epidemic (black dot) (b) Population size (x-axis) compared to the proportion of infections from the down-sampled data (black) compared to the truth from the overall simulated epidemic (purple). (c) The probability of being in the home municipality and (d) the recaptured parameter after inputting a parameter of −2 to adjust the diagonal of the mobility matrix after one transmission generation. Both c and d include values from left to right for sampling as per the true data proportions in each province (6.5% of total infections), down-sampling to fit on only 2 of the 9 provinces, and if our generation time estimate is 50% smaller than the truth, exactly right, or 50% larger. Error bars represent 2.5 to 97.5 percentiles.