Table 1.
Comparison with BIC.
| BIC score | Deaths | DALYs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USWS | LOS | AHWF | USWS | LOS | AHWF | |
| TAJIKISTAN | ||||||
| ARIMA | 326.96 | 447.259 | 384.27 | 705.57 | 691.5 | 680.117 |
| ES | 354.560 | 447.259 | 412.490 | 735.826 | 720.8985 | 680.117 |
| ARMENIA | ||||||
| ARIMA | 277.45 | 279.06 | 226.61 | 561.27 | 564.45 | 514.99 |
| ES | 255.814 | 256.499 | 241.708 | 558.477 | 562.597 | 514.293 |
| AZERBAIJAN | ||||||
| ARIMA | 370.45 | 359.75 | 341.2 | 652.51 | 642.05 | 626.26 |
| ES | 383.315 | 371.7164 | 374.191 | 666.842 | 655.762 | 643.451 |
| CENTRAL ASIA | ||||||
| ARIMA | 517.31 | 508.77 | 473.41 | 781.17 | 772.13 | 738.27 |
| ES | 525.6883 | 514.641 | 503.875 | 802.280 | 792.911 | 770.154 |
| KAZAKHSTAN | ||||||
| ARIMA | 402.11 | 396.65 | 340.9 | 646.05 | 641.94 | 584.63 |
| ES | 381.591 | 375.293 | 357.038 | 665.287 | 657.341 | 613.491 |
| KYRGYZSTAN | ||||||
| ARIMA | 312.75 | 299.81 | 286.22 | 584.19 | 567.48 | 555.36 |
| ES | 342.762 | 329.073 | 311.496 | 614.434 | 598.192 | 580.795 |
| MONGOLIA | ||||||
| ARIMA | 338.59 | 328.49 | 315.41 | 611.59 | 602 | 585.9 |
| ES | 333.356 | 322.291 | 334.292 | 618.585 | 607.948 | 601.366 |
| TURKAMENISTAN | ||||||
| ARIMA | 389.12 | 375.63 | 344.77 | 660.25 | 646.74 | 622.52 |
| ES | 390.873 | 376.284 | 362.495 | 671.407 | 657.559 | 634.196 |
| UZBEKISTAN | ||||||
| ARIMA | 443.17 | 438.68 | 404.36 | 688.33 | 683.51 | 662.04 |
| ES | 418.025 | 415.194 | 429.506 | 715.480 | 712.617 | 700.496 |