Table 1b.

Values of area under the curve (AUC) for models predicting the timing of occurrence of fruiting bodies of the winter chanterelle (Craterellus tubaeformis) across the whole study areas, from 2015 to 2021.

Model	Boosted regression trees				Random forests				Ensemble
Weather data	AgERA5		GFS		AgERA5		GFS		AgERA5		GFS
Temporal correction	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No
2015	0.83	0.81	NA	NA	0.84	0.83	NA	NA	0.84	0.82	NA	NA
2016	0.84	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.85	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.85	0.86	0.84	0.83
2017	0.86	0.87	0.85	0.86	0.88	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.87	0.87	0.86	0.86
2018	0.84	0.85	0.85	0.86	0.85	0.87	0.85	0.86	0.85	0.87	0.85	0.86
2019	0.84	0.84	0.85	0.85	0.86	0.85	0.86	0.85	0.85	0.85	0.86	0.85
2020	0.83	0.83	0.82	0.82	0.84	0.84	0.83	0.83	0.84	0.83	0.83	0.83
2021	0.83	0.83	0.81	0.83	0.84	0.84	0.83	0.84	0.84	0.84	0.83	0.84

Note: Predictions are compared with data for years that were excluded from model training. The AUC values are shown for models trained with observation data corrected for temporal and spatial bias, and for spatial bias only, for models using AgERA5 weather data and Global Forecast System data (GFS).