Table 1.

Model Parameters ^a

Parameter		Value	Source
Duration latent period, d	$1/\theta$	5–8	[11–16]
Days infectious totalb	$\frac{1}{\gamma }+\frac{1}{\delta }$	14–28	[11, 13–15, 17, 18]
Days infectious not refraining from sex	$1/\delta$	2–8	[11, 14, 19, 20]
Days infectious refraining from sex	$1/\gamma$	…	…
Probability of transmission per sexual contact	${\beta }_s$	0.1–0.9	[12, 18, 19]
Vaccine efficacy for vaccines administered in the past	$1-{\sigma }_1$	50%–65%	Datad
Vaccine efficacy for vaccines administered in 2022	$1-{\sigma }_2$	80%–90%	[1, 13, 14]
Mpox-related death rate	${\mu }_d$	0.0004	[21, 22]
Factor reducing infectiousness of those vaccinated in the past	$v_1$	$v_1={\sigma }_1$	…
Factor reducing infectiousness of those vaccinated in 2022	$v_2$	$v_2={\sigma }_2$	…
Hospitalization rate	ζ	0.01–0.02	Datad [22]
% of MSM who were in the past vaccinated against smallpox	…	25%	[23]
Rate of entry into and exit out of the populationc	μ	0.02/y	…
Mixing parameter for main regular partnerships	${\epsilon }_M$	0.1–0.9	…
Mixing parameter for casual partnerships	${\epsilon }_C$	0.1–0.9	…
Vaccination rate, per de	${\phi }_{ki}$	0.0003–0.0005	…
Factor reducing transmission from infectious in abstinence	w	0.15–0.7	[14]
Number of MSM in the Netherlands		250 000	[23, 24]
Number casual partners/d, MSM very high sexual activity group		0.7–1.0	Table 2

Abbreviation: MSM, men who have sex with men.

^aParameters with a range were included in the Latin hypercube sampling.

^bThe total number of days a mpox case is infectious is the sum of the days being infectious not in sexual abstinence and the days being infectious in abstinence.

^cBased on assumption that MSM are sexually active approximately for 50 y.

^dData from the national database of notifiable infectious diseases of the Netherlands [7].

^eThe vaccination rate is ${\phi }_{1i}$ for uninfected and ${\phi }_{2i}$ for exposed individuals of activity group i. Range of values shown is for fairly high and very high sexual activity groups, from 7 June 2022, chosen such that the weekly number of vaccinations was 0.5-1.5 times the weekly number of cases, assuming that in this period approximately 1 contact of each diagnosed case was vaccinated. The vaccination rate for the low activity groups was zero throughout the calculations.