. 2023 Sep 22;230(1):e121–e130. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiad414

Table 3.

Prior Distributions of Uncertain Parameters Relating to the Adaptations in Behavior of MSM That May Have Occurred in June/July 2022

	Days Infectious Not Refraining From Sexual Contacts	Reduction^a in Number Casual Partners of Group, %
	Days Infectious Not Refraining From Sexual Contacts	Low^b	Fairly High	Very High
Scenario with adaptations at 1 time point
After $T_{2}$	2–8	0–30	0–30	0–30
Scenario with adaptations at 2 time points
Between $T_{1}$ and $T_{2}$	2–8	0–30	0–30	0–30
After $T_{2}$	2–8	0–30	0–30	0–30
Dates when adaptations occurred
$T_{1}$	17–27 June 2022
$T_{2}$	5–15 July 2022

Values were sampled from the uniform distribution with the ranges shown in this table.

^aIt was assumed that the number of casual partners of activity group i was $α_{c i}$ at the beginning of the outbreak (as estimated from the data; see Table 2) and was reduced to $(1 - D_{i j}) * α_{c i}$ after day $T_{j}$ , with $D_{i j}$ sampled from the uniform distribution between 0 and 0.3. The maximum of 30% reduction was based on preliminary results from the survey “Monkeypox: a new challenge for your sex life” [9, 26, 27]and reports from club owners in Amsterdam who experienced reduced numbers of visitors in July 2022, with the reduction reaching its maximum at the end of July 2022 with approximately 30% fewer visitors (P. Zantkuijl, personal communication).

^bChange applied to both very low and fairly low activity groups.