Table 4.
Risk of incident type 2 diabetes predicted by polygenic risk score only, and by polygenic risk score plus light exposure.
| Percentile | PRS only |
PRS + light |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR [95% CI] | p-value | HR [95% CI] | p-value | ||
| Model 1 | |||||
| Polygenic risk | 0–25% (ref.) | – | – | – | – |
| 25–50% | 1.69 [1.44–1.98]a | <0.0001 | 1.69 [1.44–1.98]a | <0.0001 | |
| 50–75% | 2.55 [2.20–2.97]a | <0.0001 | 2.54 [2.18–2.95]a | <0.0001 | |
| 75–100% | 4.68 [4.03–5.43]a | <0.0001 | 4.66 [4.02–5.40]a | <0.0001 | |
| Night light | 0–50% (ref.) | – | – | – | – |
| 50–70% | – | – | 1.35 [1.20–1.53]a | <0.0001 | |
| 70–90% | – | – | 1.41 [1.25–1.60]a | <0.0001 | |
| 90–100% | – | – | 1.73 [1.50–2.00]a | <0.0001 | |
| Day light | 0–50% (ref.) | – | – | – | – |
| 50–70% | – | – | 0.98 [0.87–1.11] | 0.74 | |
| 70–90% | – | – | 0.88 [0.78–1.00]a | 0.048 | |
| 90–100% | – | – | 0.74 [0.63–0.87]a | 0.00033 | |
| Model 2 | |||||
| Polygenic risk | 0–25% (ref.) | – | – | – | – |
| 25–50% | 1.66 [1.41–1.95]a | <0.0001 | 1.65 [1.41–1.94]a | <0.0001 | |
| 50–75% | 2.48 [2.13–2.89]a | <0.0001 | 2.46 [2.12–2.87]a | <0.0001 | |
| 75–100% | 4.42 [3.80–5.13]a | <0.0001 | 4.40 [3.78–5.11]a | <0.0001 | |
| Night light | 0–50% (ref.) | – | – | – | – |
| 50–70% | – | – | 1.32 [1.16–1.49]a | <0.0001 | |
| 70–90% | – | – | 1.40 [1.24–1.58]a | <0.0001 | |
| 90–100% | – | – | 1.66 [1.43–1.92]a | <0.0001 | |
| Day light | 0–50% (ref.) | – | – | – | – |
| 50–70% | – | – | 1.00 [0.89–1.13] | 0.97 | |
| 70–90% | – | – | 0.92 [0.82–1.05] | 0.21 | |
| 90–100% | – | – | 0.78 [0.66–0.92]a | 0.0032 | |
| Model 3 | |||||
| Polygenic risk | 0–25% (ref.) | – | – | – | – |
| 25–50% | 1.59 [1.35–1.88]a | <0.0001 | 1.59 [1.35–1.87]a | <0.0001 | |
| 50–75% | 2.36 [2.02-2.75]a | <0.0001 | 2.34 [2.01–2.73]a | <0.0001 | |
| 75–100% | 4.17 [3.58–4.85]a | <0.0001 | 4.14 [3.55–4.82]a | <0.0001 | |
| Night light | 0–50% (ref.) | – | – | – | – |
| 50–70% | – | – | 1.31 [1.16–1.49]a | <0.0001 | |
| 70–90% | – | – | 1.39 [1.23–1.58]a | <0.0001 | |
| 90–100% | – | – | 1.58 [1.36–1.84]a | <0.0001 | |
| Day light | 0–50% (ref.) | – | – | – | – |
| 50–70% | – | – | 1.08 [0.95–1.22] | 0.25 | |
| 70–90% | – | – | 1.07 [0.94–1.21] | 0.31 | |
| 90–100% | – | – | 0.98 [0.83–1.16] | 0.82 |
Data are hazard ratios (95% CI). Exposures are percentiles of type 2 diabetes polygenic risk, night light and day light exposure. Model covariates: model 1: age, sex, ethnicity, and the top five principal components of genetic ancestry; model 2: model 1 covariates plus income, material deprivation, education, and employment status; and model 3: model 2 covariates plus smoking status, alcohol consumption, healthy diet, physical activity, and urbanicity. Models were analysed within a sub-sample of participants with European ancestry only, consisting of 94.6% of participants with complete light data and no type 2 diabetes diagnosis prior to light-tracking.
p < 0.05.