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. 2024 Jul 3;8(4):375–383. doi: 10.1016/j.mayocpiqo.2024.05.005

Table 1.

Validated Malignancy Probability Prediction Models for the Evaluation of Pulmonary Nodules7,8

Model Cleveland Clinic Model10 Mayo Clinic Model9 Herder Model3 Veterans Affairs Model4 Brock University Model5
Population Incidental PN referred for biopsy or resection Incidental PN identified on CXR Incidental PN, further evaluated with PET scan Incidental PN on CXR, confirmed on CT imaging +/- PET PN detected on LDCT as part of lung cancer screening program
-Did not use CT, excluded patients with history of lung cancer or extrathoracic cancer within 5 years -Limited by nonstandardized PET reporting and variation in data acquisition and reconstruction techniques -Predominantly male cohort, and majority current or former smokers
Prevalence of malignancy in model development cohort 66.50% 23% 57% 54% 5.50%
Variables ·Age
·Smoking history
·Emphysema
·Upper lobe location
·Solid and irregular/spiculated edges
·History of cancer other than lung
·FDG-PET avidity
·Change in PN size		 ·Age
·Smoking history
·History of extrathoracic malignancy ≥5 years ago
·Nodule diameter
·Spiculation
·Upper lobe location		 ·Same as Mayo Clinic Model, added FDG-PET uptake (none/faint/moderate/intense) ·Age
·Smoking history
·Time since quitting smoking
·Nodule diameter		 ·Age
·Sex
Family history of lung cancer
·Emphysema
·Nodule size
·Nodule type
·Location
·Nodule count

Abbreviations: CT, computed tomography; CXR, chest radiograph; FDG, fludeoxyglucose F18; LDCT, low dose computed tomography; PET, positron emission tomography; PN, pulmonary nodule.