Table 4.
Model Outcomes (Yearly Average over a 10-y Programmatic Period)
| Model Outcome | No. of CRLM Patients Eligible | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| First transplants | 80.8 | 81.5 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 83.4 | 84.9 | 84.5 | 85.0 | 85.6 | 86.0 | 86.4 |
| Retransplants | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| Withdrawals from waiting list | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Death/dropout Status Quo | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Total withdrawals from waiting list | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 11.7 |
| Death/dropout CRLM | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Exported livers | 11.1 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| Average number waiting (based on 10 y) | 19.5 | 21.0 | 22.7 | 24.6 | 26.8 | 28.9 | 31.3 | 34.1 | 36.8 | 39.7 | 42.7 |
CRLM, colorectal cancer liver-only metastases.