Table 4.
The DALYs cases and age-standardized DALYs of AF/AFL in 1990 and 2021, and its temporal trends from 1990 to 2021, by sex, SDI quintile, and GBD region
| Characteristics | Number of DALYs cases in 1990 | ASDAR per 100 000 (95% UI) | Number of DALYs cases in 2021 | ASDAR per 100 000 (95% UI) | 1990–2021 EAPC (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | 3 358 708 (2 715 430–4 141 735) | 100.81 (82.82–122.62) | 8 358 894 (6 970 688–10 133 489) | 101.4 (84.89–122.41) | 0 (−0.02 to 0.02) |
| Sex | |||||
| Female | 1 788 781 (1 483 399–2 202 805) | 93.29 (77.72–113.71) | 4 326 773 (3 603 522–5 211 317) | 92.24 (76.84–111.24) | −0.1 (−0.12 to 0.07) |
| Male | 1 569 927 (1 231 979–1 964 377) | 109.93 (88.5–134.72) | 4 032 121 (3 310 673–4 901 830) | 112.05 (93.3–135.28) | 0.09 (0.08–0.11) |
| Age | |||||
| 30–34 years | 6240 (4700–8429) | 1.62 (1.22–2.19) | 10 078 (7925–13 319) | 1.67 (1.31–2.2) | 0.12 (0.05–0.19) |
| 35–39 years | 18 994 (11 451–31 608) | 5.39 (3.25–8.97) | 30 885 (19 367–49 682) | 5.51 (3.45–8.86) | 0.1 (0.03–0.16) |
| 40–44 years | 43 324 (28 002–67 491) | 15.12 (9.77–23.56) | 76 383 (51 014–116 783) | 15.27 (10.2–23.34) | 0.06 (−0.01 to 0.12) |
| 45–49 years | 77 141 (52 671–110 825) | 33.22 (22.68–47.73) | 158 384 (106 687–221 258) | 33.45 (22.53–46.73) | 0.08 (0.01–0.14) |
| 50–54 years | 136 433 (95 104–189 124) | 64.18 (44.74–88.97) | 286 618 (194 177–396 623) | 64.42 (43.64–89.14) | 0.06 (0.01–0.11) |
| 55–59 years | 212 173 (151 047–286 888) | 114.56 (81.56–154.91) | 463 951 (331 198–623 477) | 117.24 (83.69–157.55) | 0.1 (0.07–0.13) |
| 60–64 years | 309 184 (224 654–422 473) | 192.51 (139.88–263.04) | 628 936 (461 139–846 124) | 196.51 (144.08–264.37) | 0.07 (0.05–0.1) |
| 65–69 years | 390 230 (291 341–516 754) | 315.7 (235.69–418.05) | 871 575 (659 243–1 149 176) | 315.97 (238.99–416.61) | −0.01 (−0.03 to 0.02) |
| 70–74 years | 456 083 (349 162–609 031) | 538.72 (412.42–719.38) | 1 124 193 (883 395–1 448 890) | 546.15 (429.17–703.89) | −0.05 (−0.08 to 0.02) |
| 75–79 years | 553 399 (435 371–714 639) | 899.02 (707.28–1160.97) | 1 159 413 (922 654–1 463 210) | 879.11 (699.59–1109.46) | −0.09 (−0.12 to 0.06) |
| 80–84 years | 556 332 (459 921–686 291) | 1572.63 (1300.1–1939.99) | 1 359 428 (1 140 384–1 636 165) | 1552.16 (1302.06–1868.13) | −0.08 (−0.11 to 0.05) |
| 85–89 years | 366 609 (312 103–432 859) | 2426.09 (2065.39–2864.52) | 1 109 713 (941 751–1 289 736) | 2427.1 (2059.74–2820.83) | 0.02 (−0.01 to 0.05) |
| 90–94 years | 178 989 (151 780–205 234) | 4176.92 (3541.96–4789.39) | 776 007 (638 257–886 607) | 4337.81 (3567.8–4956.05) | 0.12 (0.08–0.16) |
| 95+ years | 53 578 (43 088–61 616) | 5262.58 (4232.28–6052.16) | 303 330 (235 930–347 976) | 5565.37 (4328.74–6384.52) | 0.09 (−0.02 to 0.2) |
| SDI region | |||||
| High SDI | 1 327 542 (1 075 909–1 630 068) | 119.83 (97.47–146.18) | 2 788 952 (2 345 598–3 317 970) | 118.88 (99.51–141.23) | −0.05 (−0.09 to 0.01) |
| High-middle SDI | 827 405 (668 171–1 021 693) | 98.39 (80.58–119.12) | 1 871 378 (1 545 511–2 273 392) | 96.58 (79.91–116.81) | −0.07 (−0.11 to 0.03) |
| Middle SDI | 703 287 (554 668–874 920) | 92.91 (76.32–114.46) | 2 256 889 (1 828 561–2 776 292) | 96.28 (79.25–117.4) | 0.06 (0.02–0.1) |
| Low-middle SDI | 371 209 (283 400–482 922) | 80.09 (61.96–102.79) | 1 110 930 (893 165–1 385 764) | 94.25 (76.45–116.71) | 0.55 (0.52–0.59) |
| Low SDI | 124 604 (87 734–165 979) | 75 (53.23–99.5) | 321 963 (242 299–416 819) | 84.52 (63.65–108.24) | 0.48 (0.36–0.6) |
| GBD region | |||||
| Africa | 163 182 (123 858–207 094) | 79.38 (61.31–99.5) | 404 602 (318 667–504 266) | 84.82 (67.77–104.12) | 0.18 (0.15–0.21) |
| African Region | 133 067 (100 998–169 877) | 81.97 (63–103.59) | 324 559 (252 516–407 039) | 86.78 (69.28–107.31) | 0.13 (0.1–0.16) |
| America | 691 298 (545 730–866 793) | 117.14 (92.96–146.06) | 1 766 101 (1 478 201–2 089 733) | 128.09 (107.1–151.67) | 0.28 (0.26–0.31) |
| Andean Latin America | 19 240 (15 208–23 493) | 106.95 (85.46–130.46) | 56 583 (44 608–69 532) | 99.93 (78.68–122.31) | −0.27 (−0.36 to 0.19) |
| Asia | 1 296 203 (1 017 915–1 633 974) | 85.07 (68.74–106.21) | 4 026 948 (3 269 416–4 982 293) | 87.96 (72.78–107.27) | 0.05 (0.02–0.08) |
| Australasia | 34 608 (29 287–40 036) | 153.78 (131.23–177.04) | 87 583 (72 120–105 463) | 147.83 (121.51–179.59) | 0 (−0.07 to 0.07) |
| Advanced Health System | 1 854 832 (1 508 861–2 283 157) | 115.61 (94.58–141.19) | 3 690 884 (3 110 092–4 376 794) | 116.21 (97.22–137.87) | 0 (−0.03 to 0.03) |
| Basic Health System | 1 016 078 (811 735–1 259 265) | 93.24 (76.88–113.64) | 3 167 936 (2 574 717–3 904 616) | 95.63 (79.01–115.9) | 0.04 (−0.02 to 0.09) |
| Caribbean | 28 429 (23 264–34 542) | 122.84 (102.16–147.29) | 63 053 (51 870–76 838) | 115.24 (94.57–140.74) | −0.19 (−0.22 to 0.15) |
| Central Africa | 17 554 (12 646–22 862) | 87.29 (63.15–113.72) | 43 687 (32 238–58 266) | 93.55 (71.25–124.63) | 0.16 (0.08–0.24) |
| Central Asia | 27 964 (21 497–36 702) | 66.28 (51.57–86.71) | 52 600 (41 314–67 337) | 75 (59.9–95.5) | 0.36 (0.27–0.45) |
| Central Europe | 157 482 (132 449–188 984) | 115.47 (98.44–136.8) | 265 917 (225 064–316 547) | 112.31 (94.56–134.27) | −0.11 (−0.25 to 0.02) |
| Central Latin America | 80 232 (64 872–98 986) | 115.99 (95.04–141.04) | 269 931 (218 012–327 388) | 113.57 (91.93–137.77) | −0.08 (−0.1 to 0.06) |
| Central Sub-Saharan Africa | 14 316 (10 216–19 085) | 91.59 (64.75–123.72) | 37 999 (27 202–52 014) | 98.45 (70.85–138.18) | 0.19 (0.09–0.3) |
| Commonwealth High Income | 199 845 (166 764–238 685) | 130.07 (108.72–154.75) | 375 501 (311 939–451 518) | 125.14 (103.2–150.96) | −0.1 (−0.17 to 0.03) |
| Commonwealth Low Income | 52 932 (37 002–69 847) | 77.12 (52.16–101.33) | 165 837 (125 868–221 627) | 92.11 (70.84–122.05) | 0.49 (0.41–0.57) |
| Commonwealth Middle Income | 349 283 (261 859–462 726) | 74.73 (57.14–98.18) | 1 126 001 (871 329–1 421 471) | 88.47 (69.27–110.18) | 0.61 (0.53–0.69) |
| East Asia | 533 837 (416 978–668 275) | 93.83 (76.48–115.88) | 1 723 468 (1 364 785–2 143 575) | 89.83 (72.42–109.59) | −0.23 (−0.32 to 0.13) |
| East Asia and Pacific—WB | 919 649 (738 620–1 141 882) | 91.82 (75.43–112.52) | 2 770 456 (2 258 354–3 426 063) | 88.39 (72.47–107.95) | −0.22 (−0.27 to 0.18) |
| Eastern Africa | 39 615 (28 015–51 748) | 75.37 (52.9–97.44) | 95 993 (71 329–126 402) | 77.44 (57.33–101.91) | 0.03 (−0.06 to 0.11) |
| Eastern Europe | 242 292 (195 940–303 226) | 95.36 (78.74–118) | 388 580 (318 353–470 379) | 107.73 (88.25–130.33) | 0.36 (0.27–0.44) |
| Eastern Mediterranean Region | 100 324 (76 902–127 934) | 73.72 (56.63–93.59) | 279 137 (229 154–335 913) | 83.39 (68.66–99.79) | 0.35 (0.31–0.39) |
| Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa | 42 708 (29 866–56 564) | 75.84 (52–99.79) | 103 373 (74 839–140 257) | 79.25 (57.05–108.27) | 0.1 (0.01–0.19) |
| Europe | 1 198 852 (987 948–1 467 361) | 118.48 (98.39–143.79) | 2 143 013 (1 803 191–2 528 795) | 120.68 (100.81–143.89) | 0.09 (0.04–0.14) |
| Europe and Central Asia—WB | 1 214 570 (1 000 558–1 488 285) | 117.02 (97.18–142.14) | 2 172 465 (1 826 634–2 567 749) | 119.45 (99.73–142.53) | 0.1 (0.04–0.15) |
| European Region | 1 223 481 (1 007 878–1 499 361) | 117.11 (97.25–142.26) | 2 196 895 (1 847 967–2 596 531) | 119.67 (99.9–142.83) | 0.1 (0.05–0.15) |
| High-income Asia Pacific | 156 515 (125 660–193 831) | 83.08 (67.38–102.03) | 364 512 (301 067–443 767) | 69.03 (56.4–84.74) | −0.84 (−1.05 to 0.63) |
| High-income North America | 443 449 (346 576–559 226) | 121.41 (94.78–152.92) | 1 015 978 (854 240–1 202 900) | 144.37 (121–171.39) | 0.54 (0.5–0.58) |
| Latin America and Caribbean—WB | 252 238 (202 086–312 391) | 111.77 (91.56–136.53) | 759 213 (621 128–925 884) | 110.77 (90.75–135) | 0.01 (−0.01 to 0.03) |
| Limited Health System | 450 177 (334 989–591 416) | 76.45 (57.46–100.26) | 1 417 153 (1 105 985–1 794 958) | 89.2 (69.89–111.71) | 0.54 (0.47–0.61) |
| Middle East and North Africa—WB | 68 089 (54 317–84 311) | 76.79 (61.85–93.96) | 214 656 (175 101–253 240) | 82.45 (68.2–97.11) | 0.25 (0.23–0.27) |
| Minimal Health System | 32 96 (23 155–43 170) | 74.94 (52.14–99.31) | 74 138 (53 922–97 881) | 83.45 (61.87–109.17) | 0.37 (0.33–0.41) |
| North Africa and Middle East | 88 830 (69 529–110 179) | 71.6 (56.5–88.83) | 265 649 (218 559–309 833) | 76.1 (63.33–88.63) | 0.23 (0.12–0.33) |
| North America | 443 458 (346 583–559 237) | 121.4 (94.78–152.91) | 1 016 018 (854 266–1 202 948) | 144.36 (120.99–171.37) | 0.54 (0.5–0.58) |
| Northern Africa | 31 512 (24 263–39 022) | 73.13 (57.14–90.01) | 91 381 (73 526–109 865) | 82.98 (66.66–99.61) | 0.52 (0.48–0.56) |
| Oceania | 2441 (1825–3093) | 110.29 (85.01–137.38) | 6606 (5044–8584) | 110.15 (86.19–141.7) | −0.02 (−0.05 to 0) |
| Region of the Americas | 691 298 (545 730–866 793) | 117.14 (92.96–146.06) | 1 766 101 (1 478 201–2 089 733) | 128.09 (107.1–151.67) | 0.28 (0.26–0.31) |
| South-East Asia Region | 417 493 (317 065–554 526) | 80.36 (61.52–105.39) | 1 411 590 (1 109 818–1 780 709) | 94.51 (75.57–117.08) | 0.56 (0.5–0.61) |
| South Asia | 311 117 (228 511–416 726) | 71.78 (52.92–96.69) | 1 071 260 (820 127–1 366 680) | 88.3 (68.02–111.45) | 0.74 (0.66–0.82) |
| South Asia—WB | 322 015 (236 399–431 212) | 72.05 (53.39–97.03) | 1 099 152 (842 561–1 399 533) | 88.37 (68.14–111.44) | 0.73 (0.65–0.81) |
| Southeast Asia | 200 296 (158 700–252 961) | 102.35 (82.98–128.37) | 612 969 (501 403–745 497) | 115.4 (95.88–139.11) | 0.34 (0.27–0.41) |
| Southern Africa | 26 546 (20 762–33 713) | 76.59 (60.7–96.62) | 67 819 (54 307–84 419) | 92.52 (75.8–112.25) | 0.63 (0.53–0.74) |
| Southern Latin America | 34 600 (28 133–42 981) | 82.4 (67.73–101.03) | 67 844 (58 167–78 537) | 74.67 (63.84–86.8) | 0.14 (−0.08 to 0.36) |
| Southern Sub-Saharan Africa | 17 046 (13 347–21 744) | 75.25 (59.56–95.82) | 41 787 (34 114–50 581) | 90.4 (74.56–108.99) | 0.62 (0.44–0.8) |
| Sub-Saharan Africa—WB | 132 276 (100 035–169 517) | 81.17 (62.05–103.01) | 314 448 (244 803–395 915) | 85.46 (67.58–105.82) | 0.1 (0.06–0.13) |
| Tropical Latin America | 90 777 (71 331–113 772) | 122.82 (99.71–151.03) | 304 099 (245 416–375 972) | 122.75 (99.62–151.65) | −0.04 (−0.09 to 0) |
| Western Africa | 47 954 (37 436–60 883) | 84.55 (66.61–106.13) | 105 722 (82 182–130 285) | 85.51 (67.49–103.77) | −0.08 (−0.13 to 0.02) |
| Western Europe | 779 577 (634 739–949 783) | 130.74 (106.98–159.03) | 1 440 284 (1 208 224–1 709 735) | 131.15 (108.91–156.67) | 0.08 (0.03–0.12) |
| Western Pacific Region | 770 687 (616 064–954 600) | 89.58 (73.54–109.4) | 2 321 265 (1 884 305–2 862 897) | 84.93 (69.3–103.8) | −0.27 (−0.32 to 0.21) |
| Western Sub-Saharan Africa | 52 952 (41 258–67 156) | 84.18 (66.13–105.66) | 118 819 (92 666–146 393) | 86.12 (68.4–104.09) | −0.03 (−0.08 to 0.01) |
| World Bank High Income | 1 565 655 (1 267 474–1 925 064) | 120.87 (98.19–147.64) | 3 207 228 (2 700 060–3 814 655) | 119.83 (100.24–142.58) | −0.04 (−0.06 to 0.01) |
| World Bank Low Income | 81 572 (58 834–105 441) | 76.39 (55.06–98.05) | 195 087 (148 558–251 095) | 78.76 (61.15–101.4) | 0.1 (0.04–0.16) |
| World Bank Lower Middle Income | 648 511 (502 187–837 064) | 82.29 (64.97–104.65) | 1 925 763 (1 541 040–2 393 244) | 96 (77.68–117.4) | 0.51 (0.48–0.55) |
| World Bank Upper Middle Income | 1 052 444 (844 931–1 303 925) | 92.23 (76.46–111.67) | 3 014 727 (2 451 365–3 720 467) | 93.03 (77.02–113.01) | −0.03 (−0.08 to 0.02) |
ASDAR, age-standardized DALYs rate; CI, confidence interval; EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; SDI, socio-demographic index; UI, uncertainty interval.