Table. Pertussis incidence before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic: interrupted time-series analysis, France, 2012–2024 (n = 26,060).
Adjusted IRRa | 95% CI | p value | |
---|---|---|---|
Overall number of positive PCRs (n = 26,060) | |||
Pre-COVID-19 | Reference | ||
COVID-19 pandemicb | 0.09 | 0.06–0.13 | < 0.001 |
Post-COVID-19 | 3.66 | 1.42–9.39 | 0.007 |
Number of positive PCRs, by agec | |||
0–5 years (n = 5,716) | |||
Pre-COVID-19 | Reference | ||
COVID-19 pandemicb | 0.13 | 0.08–0.18 | < 0.001 |
Post-COVID-19 | 3.29 | 1.28–8.48 | 0.014 |
6–17 years (n = 6,717) | |||
Pre-COVID-19 | Reference | ||
COVID-19 pandemicb | 0.09 | 0.0–0.13 | < 0.001 |
Post-COVID-19 | 4.58 | 1.79–11.76 | 0.002 |
≥ 18 years (n = 13,430) | |||
Pre-COVID-19 | Reference | ||
COVID-19 pandemicb | 0.08 | 0.05–0.11 | < 0.001 |
Post-COVID-19 | 3.62 | 1.41–9.29 | 0.008 |
Proportion of positive PCRs | |||
Pre-COVID-19 | Reference | ||
COVID-19 pandemicb | 0.17 | 0.02–1.49 | 0.110 |
Post-COVID-19 | 1.86 | 0.19–17.96 | 0.591 |
Sensitivity analysisd | |||
Pre-COVID-19 | Reference | ||
COVID-19 pandemicb | 0.09 | 0.06–0.13 | < 0.001 |
Post-COVID-19 | 3.52 | 1.34–9.27 | 0.011 |
CI: confidence interval; IRR: incidence rate ratio.
a Negative binomial model adjusted on seasonality and 3-year pertussis cycles.
b Between April 2020 and December 2023.
c Age data were missing for 197 cases (less than 1%).
d Seasonality-adjusted with calendar month instead of sine/cosine terms.