Table 1:
Model inputs
| Base values | Deterministic sensitivity range | |
|---|---|---|
|
| ||
| QRISK3 score at baseline 7 | ||
| Population | 11·5 | .. |
| Men | 11·9 | .. |
| Women | 11·3 | .. |
| QRISK3 score change relative to baseline for the population7 | ||
| Microfinance | −0·41 | −1·4 to 0·5 |
| Group medical visits | −0·33 | −4·4 to 0·7 |
| Group medical visits and microfinance | −0·93 | −4·9 to 0·0 |
| QRISK3 score change relative to baseline in men 7 | ||
| Microfinance | −0·12 | ..* |
| Group medical visits | 0·40 | ..* |
| Group medical visits and microfinance | −0·70 | ..* |
| QRISK3 score change relative to baseline in women 7 | ||
| Microfinance | −0·52 | ..* |
| Group medical visits | −0·60 | ..* |
| Group medical visits and microfinance | −1·00 | ..* |
| Annual cost 7 | ||
| Usual care | $87 | ±10% |
| Microfinance | $120 | ±10% |
| Group medical visits | $99 | ±10% |
| Group medical visits and microfinance | $139 | ±10% |
| Hypertension management | $68 | ±10% |
| Chronic cardiovascular-disease management | $125 | ±10% |
| Heart attack15 | $1996 | ±10% |
| Stroke15 | $1874 | ±10% |
| Health-state disability weights 16 | ||
| No cardiovascular disease | 0·06 | ±10% |
| Chronic cardiovascular disease from one heart attack | 0·08 | ±10% |
| Chronic cardiovascular disease from one stroke | 0·14 | ±10% |
| Chronic cardiovascular disease from two heart attacks | 0·17 | ±10% |
| Chronic cardiovascular disease from two strokes | 0·49 | ±10% |
| Chronic cardiovascular disease from one heart attack and one stroke | 0·33 | ±10% |
| Disutility of cardiac events 16 † | ||
| Heart attack | 0·01 | ±10% |
| Stroke | 0·01 | ±10% |
| Annual age-specific all-cause mortality rates 17 | ||
| 60–64 years | 0·02 | .. |
| 65–69 years | 0·03 | .. |
| 70–74 years | 0·0 | .. |
| 75–79 years | 0·07 | .. |
| 80–84 years | 0·11 | .. |
| >85 years | 0·20 | .. |
| Hazard ratios 18 | ||
| Heart attack after previous heart attack | 1·42 | 1·20 to 1·69 |
| Stroke after previous stroke | 2·89 | 2·37 to 3·53 |
| Heart attack after previous stroke | 1·00 | 1·00 to 1·32 |
| Stroke after previous heart attack | 1·00 | 1·00 to 1·23 |
| Heart attack after previous heart attack and stroke | 1·95 | 1·37 to 2·8 |
| Stroke after previous heart attack and stroke | 3·13 | 2·22 to 4·43 |
| Fatal heart attack after previous heart attack | 1·22 | 1·0 to 1·43 |
| Fatal heart attack after previous stroke | 1·00 | 1·03 to 1·43 |
| Fatal stroke after previous heart attack | 1·22 | 1·00 to 1·35 |
| Fatal stroke after previous stroke | 1·00 | 1·00 to 1·35 |
| All-cause death after previous cardiac event (assumption) | 1·00 | 1·00 to 1·50 |
| Other parameters | ||
| Proportion of cardiovascular-disease incidence that is strokes (assumption) | 0·60 | 0·5 to 0·7 |
| Proportion of fatal heart attacks19 | 0·45 | ±10% |
| Proportion of fatal strokes20 | 0·45 | ±10% |
| Discount rate (assumption) | 0·03 | 0·00 to 0·07 |
Costs are reported per person in 2020 US$.
*
Data are available in the appendix (p 12).
†
Disability weights of cardiac events were weighted to consider the duration of symptoms.