Fig. 2. Fiji coral composite annual Sr/Ca-SST record, WPWP model simulations and proxy reconstructions, and the SWCP SST gradient.

Annual (light gray) and 15-year moving average (dark gray) Fiji coral composite record compared to (A) simulated southwest tropical Pacific (10° to 22°S, 150° to 180°E) SST based on the average of 13 runs from the CESM LME (red) and their SD (light red); (B) Makassar Strait composite Indo-Pacific Warm Pool SST Mg/Ca reconstructions from (25) (Newton, pink) and (26) (Oppo, purple); (C) annual and 15-year moving average SSTs reconstructed for the southwest tropical Pacific from the PHYDA (orange); (D) annual and 15-year moving average SST derived from δ¹⁸O composite coral data from Palmyra (60); (E) annual and 15-year moving average SST reconstruction for the Niño 3.4 region in the central Pacific from (21) (PHYDA, yellow) and (56) (EG, green) based on the ERSSTv3; and (F) Mg/Ca foraminifera SST reconstruction from the Galapagos in the eastern Pacific (61) and inferred eastern Pacific SSTs from lake epiphytic diatom from El Junco Lake, Galápagos (62). (G) Annual and 15-year moving average SWCP gradient calculated as the difference between Fiji coral composite record and the Niño 3.4 SST reconstructions from the PHYDA (yellow) and EG (green) and their average (black). SST presented as anomalies relative to 1883 to 1996 except in (B) where values are relative to the common period between all three records (1370 to 1840). Extended warm (cold) periods in the Fiji composite highlighted in red (blue) based on the change point analysis from Fig. 1. Also shown in (G) is the change point analysis for the average SWCP gradient (dark red lines).