Figure 1.

A) Two abstract shapes were probabilistically related to each of two outcome identities by independent transition probabilities p₁ and p₂. B) Schematic of the direct transition condition. Participants chose one of the two shapes on each trial based on two pieces of information: their estimates of the probability that each would lead to either outcome identity (gift cards) and the randomly generated number of points they could potentially win if that outcome was obtained. The color of each number indicated the identity of the outcome on which that number of points could be won. In the example, green indicates the number of points for the Starbucks gift card, while pink indicates the number of points for iTunes. Next, participants observed the outcome of their choice (the gift card and amount) after a delay. C) Schematic of the indirect transition condition. Same as (B) except that after participants made their choice they transitioned into another independent decision. After this second decision was made, participants observed the outcome of their first decision. D) Results of logistic regression analysis predicting the current choice based on previously observed choice-outcome relationships. Each cell represents the combination of a previously observed choice with an observed outcome. The color of each cell shows the value of beta estimates for each combination of previous choice and observed outcome, averaged across participants. Positive values indicate that the choice-outcome pair predicted choosing the same shape again when that shape previously led to the currently desired outcome. E) Theoretical decomposition of the matrix in (D) into groups of cells which reflect “appropriate credit assignment” given the task structure (orange) and “credit spreading” (pink). F) Mean (±SEM) of beta coefficients for specific choice-outcome combinations averaged across the groupings of cells shown in E for each condition.