Figure.

Model performance in the model development (panel A), internal validation (panel B), and external validation (panel C) cohorts based on area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The guideline-based model is based on the guideline-recommended surveillance interval dichotomized as low- or high-risk (ie, recommended interval ≥5 vs <5 years). The multivariable model includes age (in 1-year increments), index endoscopist all-indication ADR <32.5% or missing, index colonoscopy polyp size ≥10 mm, and ever smoked. The updated multivariable model includes patient age (in 1-year increments), a positive fecal test indication on the index colonoscopy, index endoscopist all-indication ADR <37.5% or missing, and adenoma with advanced histology.