Table 2.
Three hypotheses regarding how the ecological and evolutionary past shapes current and future responses to environmental change, and the multiple study approaches required to understand this biological resilience (with examples).
| Hypotheses | Methodological approaches | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| (i) past experience primes a biological entity to cope best with future disturbances of a similar nature | ||
| Describe patterns using correlational or before-after survey data |
• Current and future responses are mediated by past infection using long-term data on Soay sheep129 • Co-occurrence of taxa before and after Holocene83 |
|
| Use modelling and simulations to generate testable predictions | • Transgenerational priming77 | |
| Perform experimental perturbations in micro- or mesocosms or field settings |
• Experimental evolution with yeast76 • Legacy effects of drought exposure on microbial communities130 • Transgenerational acquired resistance in model plants43 • Resurrection studies93 |
|
| Interrogate findings with data from natural experiments | • Captive and wild songbirds respond differently to temperature perturbations78 | |
| (ii) diversity of environments and disturbances in the past generates greater resilience in the future | ||
| Make use of long-term survey data and/or big ecological and genetic datasets (including ancient DNA) to measure past diversity |
• Paleological history131 • Ecological and evolutionary memory33,66 • Adaptive genetic diversity57 |
|
| Use modelling and simulations to generate testable predictions | • Predicting a species response to environmental change when preadaptation of community differs132 | |
| Perform experimental perturbations in micro- or mesocosms or field settings | • Resurrection studies93 | |
| Interrogate findings with real-world examples, e.g. natural experiments | • Biological invasions133 | |
| (iii) rapid adaptation to match current conditions reduces future resilience | ||
| Compare current resilience of biological entities and search for signs of rapid adaptation in the past | • Genome-wide scans in forest trees to detect adaptation to aridity134 | |
| Use modelling and simulations to generate testable predictions | • Evolutionary rescue135 | |
| Experimentally induce a novel perturbation in cases where rapid adaptation is present vs. absent | • Resurrection studies93 | |