TABLE 2.
Estimated Impacts of CICT, and Other NPIs, by Locationa Over 60-day Period After Contact Tracing Evaluations Initiated
| Location 1 | Location 2 | Location 3 | Location 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||
| Transmission fraction | ||||
| Reduction from CICT | 8.6%-26.2% | 5.0%-5.2% | 1.4%-2.7% | 0.4%-0.4% |
| Reduction from other NPIsb | 54.6%-36.6% | 57.6%-57.3% | 63.5%-62.0% | 61.0%-61.0% |
| Remaining transmission (100% minus above values) | 36.8%-37.2% | 37.4%-37.5% | 35.1%-35.3% | 38.6%-38.6% |
| Additional cases averted by CICT (%c), 60 days | 651–9 480 | 12 598–13 568 | 344–768 | 859–882 |
| (67.1%-96.8%) | (47.1%-48.8%) | (15.4%-28.8%) | (4.4%-4.5%) | |
| Additional hospitalizations averted by CICT (%c), 60 days | 16–233 | 310–333 | 8–19 | 21–22 |
| (67.1%-96.8%) | (47.1%-48.8%) | (15.4%-28.8%) | (4.4%-4.5%) | |
Abbreviations: CICT, case investigation and contact tracing; other NPIs, other nonpharmaceutical interventions.
CICT implemented per scenarios in Table 1 and effects were assumed constant over 60 days.
Other NPI interventions including masks use, social distancing, school and restaurant closures, etc. Low NPI effectiveness values were generated with the fitting process when CICT effectiveness was high; similarly, high NPI effectiveness values were generated when CICT effectiveness was low.
Percent calculated as (Total Cases when only other NPIs implemented - Total Cases when both CICT and other NPIs implemented)/(Total Cases when only other NPIs implemented). Essentially, for every 100 remaining cases after other NPIs were implemented, CICT averted between 4.4 and 96.8 additional cases.