Table 2.
Summary health outcomes under prompt, delayed, and no treatment scenarios, stratified by HIV status.
| HIV-negative | HIV-positive | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prompt treatment | Delayed treatment | No treatment | Prompt treatment | Delayed treatment | No treatment | |
| Life expectancy (years) * | ||||||
| Absolute value | 27.9 (26.3, 29.4) | 24.9 (21.5, 27.5) | 12.0 (9.8, 14.4) | 12.5 (6.6, 15.5) | 10.7 (5.8, 13.6) | 3.3 (2.2, 4.2) |
| Difference vs. no TB counterfactual | 6.2 (4.6, 7.7) | 9.2 (6.6, 12.5) | 22.0 (19.6, 24.2) | 3.3 (1.3, 4.9) | 5.2 (2.2, 7.9) | 12.5 (5.3, 16.2) |
| Difference vs. prompt treatment | Reference | 3.0 (1.5, 5.2) | 15.8 (14.1, 17.9) | Reference | 1.9 (0.7, 3.5) | 9.2 (4.1, 11.8) |
| 5-year survival (%) ** | ||||||
| Absolute value | 86.9 (83.5, 89.6) | 79.0 (69.6, 85.4) | 47.1 (38.8, 55.3) | 67.5 (6.6, 15.5) | 57.2 (37.8, 68.4) | 14.2 (9.2, 19.4) |
| Difference vs. no TB counterfactual | 29.4 (22.3, 36.2) | 40.2 (30.5, 51.3) | 74.4 (68.3, 79.6) | 19.3 (9.3, 26.5) | 29.8 (15.5, 42.4) | 69.8 (38.6, 79.2) |
| Difference vs. prompt treatment | Reference | 13.9 (7.7, 22.5) | 58.6 (53.3, 63.7) | Reference | 11.8 (5.5, 20.5) | 53.7 (30.2, 61.3) |
| TB-attributable death (%) | ||||||
| Absolute value*** | 8.8 (6.0, 12.3) | 17.0 (10.3, 27.3) | 67.6 (60.0, 75.1) | 20.2 (14.1, 27.5) | 32.8 (22.3, 47.2) | 90.6 (87.8, 93.3) |
| Difference vs. prompt treatment | Reference | 8.2 (3.8, 15.6) | 58.9 (52.6, 65.5) | Reference | 12.6 (6.4, 22.2) | 70.4 (64.3, 75.2) |
| DALYs due to TB | ||||||
| Absolute value*** | 11.7 (8.6, 14.7) | 17.0 (12.2, 23.4) | 35.0 (31.5, 38.3) | 11.1 (7.9, 14.2) | 17.3 (12.1, 23.4) | 39.7 (33.9, 41.9) |
| Difference vs. prompt treatment | Reference | 5.4 (2.7, 9.2) | 23.4 (20.9, 26.1) | Reference | 6.2 (3.2, 10.6) | 28.6 (24.5, 30.9) |
‘DALYs’ = Disability-adjusted life years. Values in parentheses represent 95% uncertainty intervals.
*
Life expectancy under the no TB counterfactual was 34.0 (33.8, 34.3) years among HIV-negative patients, and 15.8 (7.9, 19.8) years among HIV-positive patients.
**
Five-year survival for the no TB counterfactual was 96.2% (95.8%, 96.5%) among HIV-negative patients, and 83.2% (54.4%, 90.5%) among HIV-positive patients.
***
As TB-attributable deaths and DALYs are zero under the no TB counterfactual, the absolute value of these outcomes are the same as the difference vs the no TB counterfactual.