Table 3.
Summary health outcomes under prompt, delayed, and no treatment scenarios.
| Prompt treatment | Delayed treatment | No treatment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | Pct change vs. main analysis | Estimate | Pct change vs. main analysis | Estimate | Pct change vs. main analysis | |
| Life expectancy (years) | ||||||
| Main analysis | ||||||
| Absolute value | 22.1 (19.7, 23.8) | 0% | 19.5 (17.0, 21.6) | 0% | 8.8 (7.2, 10.5) | 0% |
| Reduction due to TB | 5.1 (3.8, 6.4) | 0% | 7.7 (5.5, 10.1) | 0% | 18.5 (15.5, 20.6) | 0% |
| Reduction compared to prompt treatment | Reference | 0% | 2.6 (1.5, 4.0) | 0% | 13.4 (11.2, 15.0) | 0% |
| Alternative specification 1 (no post-TB sequelae) | ||||||
| Absolute value | 24.8 (22.4, 26.3) | 12.2% (8.3%, 16.3%) | 22.7 (20.0, 24.6) | 16.3% (10.9%, 21.8%) | 10.2 (8.3, 12.2) | 16.8% (12.3%, 21.9%) |
| Reduction due to TB | 2.4 (1.6, 3.3) | 52.8% (41.8%, 62.7%) | 4.5 (2.9, 7.0) | 41.6% (29.9%, 52.8%) | 17.0 (14.0, 19.3) | 8.0% (5.2%, 11.3%) |
| Reduction compared to prompt treatment | Reference | – | 2.1 (1.1, 3.6) | 19.3% (9.7%, 29.2%) | 14.6 (12.2, 16.4) | −9.0% (−13.6%, −4.8%) |
| Alternative specification 2 (no TB disease progression) | ||||||
| Absolute value | 22.4 (20.3, 23.8) | 1.5% (−1.9%, 5.0%) | 21.6 (19.3, 23.0) | 10.6% (4.1%, 19.3%) | 16.5 (14.7, 18.3) | 89.6% (71.8%, 107.8%) |
| Reduction due to TB | 4.8 (3.8, 5.7) | 5.6% (−10.4%, 17.9%) | 5.6 (4.4, 6.9) | 25.9% (14.1%, 35.7%) | 10.7 (8.3, 12.7) | 42.3% (37.0%, 47.5%) |
| Reduction compared to prompt treatment | Reference | – | 0.9 (0.5, 1.5) | 66.6% (60.4%, 72.5%) | 5.9 (4.3, 7.4) | 56.0% (49.5%, 62.4%) |
| Alternative specification 3 (no post-TB sequelae and no TB disease progression) | ||||||
| Absolute value | 24.9 (22.5, 26.3) | 12.7% (7.6%, 18.0%) | 23.9 (21.5, 25.4) | 22.7% (14.1%, 33.1%) | 18.2 (16.1, 20.1) | 108.9% (88.8%, 129.6%) |
| Reduction due to TB | 2.3 (1.6, 3.0) | 54.7% (41.5%, 65.1%) | 3.3 (2.3, 4.5) | 57.1% (47.5%, 65.3%) | 9.0 (6.6, 11.1) | 51.4% (44.6%, 58.1%) |
| Reduction compared to prompt treatment | Reference | – | 1.0 (0.5, 1.7) | 61.9% (55.6%, 68.1%) | 6.7 (5.0, 8.4) | 50.1% (42.7%, 57.0%) |
| DALYs due to TB | ||||||
| Main analysis | ||||||
| Absolute value* | 11.4 (8.9, 14.2) | 0% | 17.1 (13.1, 22.1) | 0% | 37.7 (34.3, 40.3) | 0% |
| Reduction compared to prompt treatment | Reference | 0% | 5.7 (3.5, 8.6) | 0% | 26.3 (23.6, 28.5) | 0% |
| Alternative specification 1 (no post-TB sequelae) | ||||||
| Absolute value | 5.3 (4.1, 7.3) | 51.5% (41.1%, 61.6%) | 9.9 (7.0, 14.0) | 42.1% (30.9%, 53.4%) | 34.4 (30.8, 37.2) | 9.0% (5.9%, 13.2%) |
| Reduction compared to prompt treatment | Reference | – | 4.4 (2.6, 7.0) | 23.0% (12.1%, 36.9%) | 28.8 (25.9, 31.4) | −9.5% (−14.9%, −4.6%) |
| Alternative specification 2 (no TB disease progression) | ||||||
| Absolute value | 10.8 (8.6, 12.8) | 5.3% (−11.6%, 18.4%) | 12.5 (10.0, 15.0) | 26.3% (14.6%, 35.9%) | 23.5 (19.8, 26.6) | 37.9% (32.9%, 43.3%) |
| Reduction compared to prompt treatment | Reference | – | 1.8 (1.0, 2.9) | 69.1% (62.1%, 76.5%) | 12.7 (10.3, 15.1) | 51.9% (45.4%, 58.1%) |
| Alternative specification 3 (no post-TB sequelae and no TB disease progression) | ||||||
| Absolute value | 5.3 (4.1, 6.6) | 53.7% (40.9%, 64.3%) | 7.3 (5.4, 9.6) | 57.2% (47.4%, 66.1%) | 19.8 (16.2, 23.3) | 47.5% (41.1%, 53.7%) |
| Reduction compared to prompt treatment | Reference | – | 2.0 (1.2, 3.4) | 64.3% (57.5%, 71.7%) | 14.6 (11.8, 17.3) | 44.7% (37.1%, 51.8%) |
‘DALYs’ = Disability-adjusted life years. Values in parentheses represent 95% uncertainty intervals.
*
As TB-attributable DALYs are zero under the no TB counterfactual, the absolute value of these outcomes are the same as the difference vs the no TB counterfactual.